tailodds FORECAST

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Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.

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PST, Nov 13 1 h ago
Observed Informational Resolved Recovery Slow taxi-in SFO arrivals

SFO arrivals back to usual taxi-in times: 7% took 13+ min

What changed: slow share 35% at worst → 7% now

Of 15 aircraft that landed at SFO (SFO) between 11:40 PM and 12:40 AM PST and have reached the ramp, 1 took 13 minutes or more from touchdown, at least 10 minutes over the airport’s typical 3.1 minutes; the median was 2.3 minutes. Usually 5% take that long (this airport, the last 7 days). Measured by Tailodds from FAA surface surveillance; it does not show why. The slow share has stayed at or below 13% for 30 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 10 landings and current data.

Landed 11:40 PM–12:40 AM PSTSample 15 arrivalsSlow 7%Usually 5%

Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA surface surveillance Timeline (2) View SFO
PST, Nov 13 2 h ago
Observed Major Developing Escalation Delay SFO departures

SFO departure delays worsen: 65% late in the last hour

What changed: late share 56% → 65%

Of 31 departures that took off between 11:25 PM and 12:25 AM PST, 20 left at least 15 minutes late. SFO typically sees 27% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

Window 11:25 PM–12:25 AM PSTSample 31 flightsLate 65%Typical 27%

Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules Timeline (2) View SFO
PST, Nov 12 3 h ago
Observed Significant Resolved Slow taxi-in SFO arrivals

SFO arrivals slow to reach the ramp: 35% took 13+ min after landing

Of 20 aircraft that landed at SFO (SFO) between 10:33 PM and 11:33 PM PST and have reached the ramp, 7 took 13 minutes or more from touchdown, at least 10 minutes over the airport’s typical 3.1 minutes; the median was 10 minutes. Usually 5% take that long (this airport, the last 7 days). Measured by Tailodds from FAA surface surveillance; it does not show why.

Landed 10:33 PM–11:33 PM PSTSample 20 arrivalsSlow 35%Usually 5%

Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA surface surveillance Timeline (2) View SFO
PST, Nov 12 3 h ago
Forecast 56% Major New Delay SFO departures

Model forecasts 56% delay risk for SFO departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

Tailodds’ model gives the 80 departures scheduled from SFO 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 10:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

Probability 56%Horizon 22.1 hModel famA-fc-v3

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (1) View SFO
PST, Nov 12 4 h ago
Observed Significant Developing Delay SFO departures

SFO departures running late: 56% left 15+ min late in the last hour

Of 25 departures that took off between 9:27 PM and 10:27 PM PST, 14 left at least 15 minutes late. SFO typically sees 27% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

Window 9:27 PM–10:27 PM PSTSample 25 flightsLate 56%Typical 27%

Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules Timeline (2) View SFO
PST, Nov 12 5 h ago
Observed Informational Resolved Recovery Delay SFO departures

SFO departures back near normal: 22% late in the last hour

What changed: late share 83% at worst → 22% now

Of 23 departures that took off between 8:48 PM and 9:48 PM PST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. SFO typically sees 27% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 30 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

Window 8:48 PM–9:48 PM PSTSample 23 flightsLate 22%Typical 27%

Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules Timeline (3) View SFO
PST, Nov 12 5 h ago
Observed Significant Resolved De-escalation Delay SFO departures

SFO departure delays ease: 50% late in the last hour, still above normal

What changed: late share 70% → 50%

Of 16 departures that took off between 8:04 PM and 9:04 PM PST, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. SFO typically sees 32% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

Window 8:04 PM–9:04 PM PSTSample 16 flightsLate 50%Typical 32%

Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules Timeline (3) View SFO
PST, Nov 12 6 h ago
Observed Major Resolved Delay SFO departures

SFO departures running late: 70% left 15+ min late in the last hour

Of 23 departures that took off between 7:13 PM and 8:13 PM PST, 16 left at least 15 minutes late. SFO typically sees 25% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

Window 7:13 PM–8:13 PM PSTSample 23 flightsLate 70%Typical 25%

Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules Timeline (3) View SFO
PST, Nov 12 6 h ago
Forecast Major Developing Escalation Cancellation SFO departures

Model raises expected cancellations to about 10 among SFO departures 3–6 PM Friday

What changed: about 8 → 10 expected cancellations since the 5:00 PM PST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 94 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Friday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~10 cancellationsHorizon 19.1 hModel famA-fc-v3

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (3) View SFO
PST, Nov 12 6 h ago
Forecast 67% Major New Delay SFO departures

Model forecasts 67% delay risk for SFO departures 6–9 PM Friday

Tailodds’ model gives the 80 departures scheduled from SFO 6–9 PM Friday an average 67% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

Probability 67%Horizon 22.1 hModel famA-fc-v3

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (1) View SFO
PST, Nov 12 6 h ago
Forecast 56% Major Developing Escalation Delay SFO departures

Model raises SFO departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Friday to 56%

What changed: 53% → 56% since the 5:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)

Tailodds’ model gives the 106 departures scheduled from SFO 9 AM–noon Friday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

Probability 56%Horizon 13.1 hModel famA-fc-v3

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (3) View SFO
PST, Nov 12 6 h ago
Forecast 45% Informational Resolved Resolution Delay SFO departures

Model now puts SFO departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday at 45%, close to its calm-weather level of 40%

What changed: 45% → 45%; calm-weather level 40%

Tailodds’ model gives the 85 departures scheduled from SFO 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 40%. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

Probability 45%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (2) View SFO
PST, Nov 12 7 h ago
Observed Informational Resolved Recovery Delay SFO departures

SFO departures back near normal: 12% late in the last hour

What changed: late share 100% at worst → 12% now

Of 25 departures that took off between 6:28 PM and 7:28 PM PST, 3 left at least 15 minutes late. SFO typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

Window 6:28 PM–7:28 PM PSTSample 25 flightsLate 12%Typical 24%

Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules Timeline (6) View SFO
PST, Nov 12 7 h ago
Observed Significant Resolved De-escalation Delay SFO departures

SFO departure delays ease: 38% late in the last hour, still above normal

What changed: late share 74% → 38%

Of 21 departures that took off between 5:53 PM and 6:53 PM PST, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. SFO typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

Window 5:53 PM–6:53 PM PSTSample 21 flightsLate 38%Typical 24%

Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules Timeline (6) View SFO
PST, Nov 12 8 h ago
Forecast Significant Developing De-escalation Cancellation SFO departures

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 8 among SFO departures 3–6 PM Friday

What changed: about 9 → 8 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM PST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 94 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Friday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~8 cancellationsHorizon 20.5 hModel famA-fc-v3

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (3) View SFO
PST, Nov 12 8 h ago
Forecast 53% Significant Developing De-escalation Delay SFO departures

Model lowers SFO departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Friday to 53%

What changed: 56% → 53% since the 10:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)

Tailodds’ model gives the 106 departures scheduled from SFO 9 AM–noon Friday an average 53% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 5:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

Probability 53%Horizon 14.5 hModel famA-fc-v3

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (3) View SFO
PST, Nov 12 8 h ago
Observed Major Resolved Escalation Delay SFO departures

SFO departure delays worsen: 74% late in the last hour

What changed: late share 43% → 74%

Of 35 departures that took off between 5:04 PM and 6:04 PM PST, 26 left at least 15 minutes late. SFO typically sees 31% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 5 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

Window 5:04 PM–6:04 PM PSTSample 35 flightsLate 74%Typical 31%

Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules Timeline (6) View SFO
PST, Nov 12 9 h ago
Forecast Major Developing Cancellation SFO departures

Model expects about 9 cancellations among SFO departures 3–6 PM Friday

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 93 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Friday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~9 cancellationsHorizon 21.5 hModel famA-fc-v3

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (3) View SFO
PST, Nov 12 9 h ago
Forecast 74% Major New Delay SFO departures

Model forecasts 74% delay risk for SFO departures 3–6 PM Friday

Tailodds’ model gives the 93 departures scheduled from SFO 3–6 PM Friday an average 74% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

Probability 74%Horizon 21.5 hModel famA-fc-v3

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (1) View SFO
PST, Nov 12 9 h ago
Forecast 46% Informational Resolved Resolution Delay SFO departures

Model lowers SFO departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 46%, near normal

What changed: 50% → 46%; calm-weather level 39%

Tailodds’ model gives the 80 departures scheduled from SFO 6–9 PM Thursday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

Probability 46%Horizon 0.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (2) View SFO
PST, Nov 12 9 h ago
Observed Significant Resolved De-escalation Delay SFO departures

SFO departure delays ease: 43% late in the last hour, still above normal

What changed: late share 90% → 43%

Of 37 departures that took off between 3:54 PM and 4:54 PM PST, 16 left at least 15 minutes late. SFO typically sees 29% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 4 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

Window 3:54 PM–4:54 PM PSTSample 37 flightsLate 43%Typical 29%

Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules Timeline (6) View SFO
PST, Nov 12 11 h ago
Observed Major Resolved Escalation Delay SFO departures

SFO departure delays worsen: 90% late in the last hour

What changed: late share 64% → 90%

Of 30 departures that took off between 2:42 PM and 3:42 PM PST, 27 left at least 15 minutes late. SFO typically sees 35% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 3 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

Window 2:42 PM–3:42 PM PSTSample 30 flightsLate 90%Typical 35%

Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules Timeline (6) View SFO
PST, Nov 12 11 h ago
Observed Significant Resolved Delay SFO departures

SFO departures running late: 64% left 15+ min late in the last hour

Of 28 departures that took off between 2:22 PM and 3:22 PM PST, 18 left at least 15 minutes late. SFO typically sees 32% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 2 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

Window 2:22 PM–3:22 PM PSTSample 28 flightsLate 64%Typical 32%

Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules Timeline (6) View SFO
PST, Nov 12 11 h ago
Forecast 50% Significant Resolved Delay SFO departures

Model forecasts 50% delay risk for SFO departures 6–9 PM Thursday

Tailodds’ model gives the 80 departures scheduled from SFO 6–9 PM Thursday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 2:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

Probability 50%Horizon 3.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (2) View SFO
PST, Nov 12 12 h ago
Forecast Significant New Cancellation SFO departures

Model expects about 10 cancellations among SFO departures noon–3 PM Friday

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 118 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Friday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~10 cancellationsHorizon 22.0 hModel famA-fc-v3

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (1) View SFO

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