Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
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Of 28 departures that took off between 8:13 AM and 9:13 AM PST, 0 left at least 15 minutes late. SFO typically sees 10% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 20% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 8:13 AM–9:13 AM PSTSample 28 flightsLate 0%Typical 10%
Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesTimeline (4)View SFO
What changed: 56% → 55% since the 10:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 85 departures scheduled from SFO 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 7:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 17 departures that took off between 5:40 AM and 6:40 AM PST, 3 left at least 15 minutes late. SFO typically sees 6% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 5:40 AM–6:40 AM PSTSample 17 flightsLate 18%Typical 6%
Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesTimeline (4)View SFO
What changed: about 10 → 7 expected cancellations since the 1:00 PM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 121 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Friday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
What changed: about 8 → 5 expected cancellations since the 10:00 AM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 107 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Friday to be cancelled (4%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
What changed: about 9 → 5 expected cancellations since the 3:00 AM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 94 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Friday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
What changed: 56% → 52% since the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 107 departures scheduled from SFO 9 AM–noon Friday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 4:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 52%Horizon 3.6 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: about 10 → 9 expected cancellations since the 7:00 PM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 94 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Friday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Of 15 aircraft that landed at SFO (SFO) between 11:40 PM and 12:40 AM PST and have reached the ramp, 1 took 13 minutes or more from touchdown, at least 10 minutes over the airport’s typical 3.1 minutes; the median was 2.3 minutes. Usually 5% take that long (this airport, the last 7 days). Measured by Tailodds from FAA surface surveillance; it does not show why. The slow share has stayed at or below 13% for 30 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 10 landings and current data.
Landed 11:40 PM–12:40 AM PSTSample 15 arrivalsSlow 7%Usually 5%
Of 31 departures that took off between 11:25 PM and 12:25 AM PST, 20 left at least 15 minutes late. SFO typically sees 27% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 11:25 PM–12:25 AM PSTSample 31 flightsLate 65%Typical 27%
Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesTimeline (4)View SFO
Of 20 aircraft that landed at SFO (SFO) between 10:33 PM and 11:33 PM PST and have reached the ramp, 7 took 13 minutes or more from touchdown, at least 10 minutes over the airport’s typical 3.1 minutes; the median was 10 minutes. Usually 5% take that long (this airport, the last 7 days). Measured by Tailodds from FAA surface surveillance; it does not show why.
Tailodds’ model gives the 80 departures scheduled from SFO 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 10:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 25 departures that took off between 9:27 PM and 10:27 PM PST, 14 left at least 15 minutes late. SFO typically sees 27% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Of 23 departures that took off between 8:48 PM and 9:48 PM PST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. SFO typically sees 27% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 30 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Of 16 departures that took off between 8:04 PM and 9:04 PM PST, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. SFO typically sees 32% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Of 23 departures that took off between 7:13 PM and 8:13 PM PST, 16 left at least 15 minutes late. SFO typically sees 25% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
What changed: about 8 → 10 expected cancellations since the 5:00 PM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 94 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Friday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Tailodds’ model gives the 80 departures scheduled from SFO 6–9 PM Friday an average 67% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
What changed: 53% → 56% since the 5:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 106 departures scheduled from SFO 9 AM–noon Friday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 85 departures scheduled from SFO 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 40%. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 45%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
Of 25 departures that took off between 6:28 PM and 7:28 PM PST, 3 left at least 15 minutes late. SFO typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Of 21 departures that took off between 5:53 PM and 6:53 PM PST, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. SFO typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
What changed: about 9 → 8 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 94 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Friday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
What changed: 56% → 53% since the 10:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 106 departures scheduled from SFO 9 AM–noon Friday an average 53% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 5:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 35 departures that took off between 5:04 PM and 6:04 PM PST, 26 left at least 15 minutes late. SFO typically sees 31% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 5 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.