tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 232 h staleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 232 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 3 minFAA flight data 3 min

FAA NAS status is stale (232 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (232 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay MIA departures

Model lowers Miami departure delay risk noon–3 PM Sunday to 34%, near normal

Current state
Resolved at 2:27 AM EST
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View MIAFlights at MIA

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 44% delay risk for Miami departures noon–3 PM Sunday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 129 departures scheduled from Miami noon–3 PM Sunday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-01 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)44% over 129 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 1, 1:00 AM EST · 10.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-01 06:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers Miami departure delay risk noon–3 PM Sunday to 34%, near normal

    What changed: 44% → 34%; calm-weather level 28%

    Tailodds’ model gives the 129 departures scheduled from Miami noon–3 PM Sunday an average 34% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-01 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)34% over 129 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 1, 1:00 AM EST · 9.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-01 07:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?