tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 4 minFAA NAS status 2 minForecast cycle 60 minLightning 2 minWeather observations 5 minFAA surface data 2 minFAA flight data 3 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Delay PHX departures

Updated model puts Phoenix departure delay risk noon–3 PM Sunday at 60%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View PHXFlights at PHX

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 61% delay risk for Phoenix departures noon–3 PM Sunday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 182 departures scheduled from Phoenix noon–3 PM Sunday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 1:00 AM MST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHX departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-01 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)61% over 182 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 1, 1:00 AM MST · 10.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-01 08:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. De-escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts Phoenix departure delay risk noon–3 PM Sunday at 60%

    What changed: 61% → 60% since the 1:00 AM MST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 181 departures scheduled from Phoenix noon–3 PM Sunday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 37%. From the 2:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHX departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-01 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)60% over 181 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 1, 2:00 AM MST · 8.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-01 10:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Sun Nov 1, 12:01 PM MST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.