tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 229 h staleForecast cycle 76 minLightning 229 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 2 minFAA flight data 2 min

FAA NAS status is stale (229 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (229 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay MIA departures

Model lowers Miami departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Monday to 44%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
Create monitor View MIAFlights at MIA

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 42% delay risk for Miami departures 9 AM–noon Monday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 143 departures scheduled from Miami 9 AM–noon Monday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 18%. From the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)42% over 143 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 1, 10:00 PM EST · 10.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-02 04:00 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts Miami departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Monday at 66%

    What changed: 42% → 66% since the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 144 departures scheduled from Miami 9 AM–noon Monday an average 66% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)66% over 144 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 2, 4:00 AM EST · 3.3 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-02 10:42 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers Miami departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Monday to 44%

    What changed: 66% → 44% since the 4:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 144 departures scheduled from Miami 9 AM–noon Monday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)44% over 144 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 2, 6:00 AM EST · 2.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-02 11:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Mon Nov 2, 9:00 AM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.