tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 4 minFAA NAS status 2 minForecast cycle 1 hLightning 2 minWeather observations 5 minFAA surface data 3 minFAA flight data 4 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Cancellation JFK departures

Model expects about 5 cancellations among JFK departures 3–6 PM Thursday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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Create monitor View JFKFlights at JFK

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

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  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 5 cancellations among JFK departures 3–6 PM Thursday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 95 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Thursday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetJFK departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-12 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~5.4 over 95 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonWed Nov 11, 7:00 PM EST · 18.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-12 01:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Thu Nov 12, 3:01 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.