Model lowers JFK departure delay risk noon–3 PM Thursday to 28%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 6:57 AM EST
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 3
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
-
Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 54% delay risk for JFK departures noon–3 PM Thursday
Tailodds’ model gives the 71 departures scheduled from JFK noon–3 PM Thursday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 16%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 54% over 71 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 12, 4:00 AM EST · 7.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-12 09:59 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers JFK departure delay risk noon–3 PM Thursday to 34%
What changed: 54% → 34% since the 4:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 71 departures scheduled from JFK noon–3 PM Thursday an average 34% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 16%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 34% over 71 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 12, 5:00 AM EST · 6.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-12 10:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers JFK departure delay risk noon–3 PM Thursday to 28%, near normal
What changed: 34% → 28%; calm-weather level 16%
Tailodds’ model gives the 72 departures scheduled from JFK noon–3 PM Thursday an average 28% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 16%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 28% over 72 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 12, 6:00 AM EST · 5.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-12 11:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?