Model lowers JFK departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Thursday to 27%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 5:57 AM EST
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 2
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 49% delay risk for JFK departures 9 AM–noon Thursday
Tailodds’ model gives the 101 departures scheduled from JFK 9 AM–noon Thursday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 16%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-12 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 49% over 101 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 12, 4:00 AM EST · 4.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-12 09:59 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers JFK departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Thursday to 27%, near normal
What changed: 49% → 27%; calm-weather level 16%
Tailodds’ model gives the 101 departures scheduled from JFK 9 AM–noon Thursday an average 27% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 16%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-12 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 27% over 101 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 12, 5:00 AM EST · 3.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-12 10:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?