tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 3 minFAA NAS status <1 minForecast cycle 88 minLightning <1 minWeather observations 1 minFAA surface data 4 minFAA flight data 4 min
Forecast Major Resolved Delay SAN departures

Model raises San Diego departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday to 75%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
Create monitor View SANFlights at SAN

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 48% delay risk for San Diego departures 6–9 PM Saturday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from San Diego 6–9 PM Saturday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 7:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSAN departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)48% over 29 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 7:00 AM PST · 10.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 15:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts San Diego departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday at 63%

    What changed: 48% → 63% since the 7:00 AM PST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from San Diego 6–9 PM Saturday an average 63% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 9:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSAN departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)62% over 29 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 9:00 AM PST · 8.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 17:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises San Diego departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday to 75%

    What changed: 63% → 75% since the 9:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from San Diego 6–9 PM Saturday an average 75% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 2:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSAN departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)75% over 29 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 2:00 PM PST · 3.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 22:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Sat Nov 14, 6:00 PM PST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.