Model lowers San Diego departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Saturday to 53%
- Current state
- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 5
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 57% delay risk for San Diego departures 9 PM–midnight Saturday
Tailodds’ model gives the 22 departures scheduled from San Diego 9 PM–midnight Saturday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SAN departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 57% over 22 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 10:00 AM PST · 10.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 18:55 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers San Diego departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Saturday to 48%
What changed: 57% → 48% since the 10:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 22 departures scheduled from San Diego 9 PM–midnight Saturday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 11:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SAN departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 48% over 22 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 11:00 AM PST · 8.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 20:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises San Diego departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Saturday to 57%
What changed: 48% → 57% since the 11:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 22 departures scheduled from San Diego 9 PM–midnight Saturday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 12:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SAN departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 57% over 22 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 12:00 PM PST · 8.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 20:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises San Diego departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Saturday to 68%
What changed: 57% → 68% since the 12:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 22 departures scheduled from San Diego 9 PM–midnight Saturday an average 68% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 3:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SAN departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 68% over 22 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 3:00 PM PST · 5.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 23:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers San Diego departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Saturday to 53%
What changed: 68% → 53% since the 3:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 22 departures scheduled from San Diego 9 PM–midnight Saturday an average 53% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 8:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SAN departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 53% over 22 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 8:00 PM PST · 0.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 04:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Sat Nov 14, 9:00 PM PST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.