Model lowers expected cancellations to about 6 among San Diego departures 6–9 PM Saturday
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- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 8 cancellations among San Diego departures 6–9 PM Saturday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 29 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (27%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target SAN departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~7.8 over 29 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 7:00 AM PST · 10.1 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 15:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 10 among San Diego departures 6–9 PM Saturday
What changed: about 8 → 10 expected cancellations since the 7:00 AM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 29 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (34%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 8:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target SAN departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~9.9 over 29 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 8:00 AM PST · 9.1 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 16:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Updated model now expects about 4 among San Diego departures 6–9 PM Saturday
What changed: about 10 → 4 expected cancellations since the 8:00 AM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 4 of the 29 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (15%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target SAN departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~4.4 over 29 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 10:00 AM PST · 7.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 18:55 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 3 among San Diego departures 6–9 PM Saturday
What changed: about 4 → 3 expected cancellations since the 10:00 AM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 29 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 11:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target SAN departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~3.1 over 29 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 11:00 AM PST · 5.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 20:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 4 among San Diego departures 6–9 PM Saturday
What changed: about 3 → 4 expected cancellations since the 11:00 AM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 4 of the 29 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (15%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 12:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target SAN departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~4.2 over 29 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 12:00 PM PST · 5.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 20:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 6 among San Diego departures 6–9 PM Saturday
What changed: about 4 → 6 expected cancellations since the 12:00 PM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 29 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (19%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target SAN departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~5.5 over 29 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 1:00 PM PST · 4.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 21:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 7 among San Diego departures 6–9 PM Saturday
What changed: about 6 → 7 expected cancellations since the 1:00 PM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 29 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (26%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 2:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target SAN departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~7.4 over 29 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 2:00 PM PST · 3.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 22:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 6 among San Diego departures 6–9 PM Saturday
What changed: about 7 → 6 expected cancellations since the 2:00 PM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 29 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (22%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target SAN departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~6.3 over 29 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 4:00 PM PST · 0.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 01:25 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Sat Nov 14, 6:00 PM PST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.