Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Airline analyst: Every MVP detector is airport-wide, so a carrier view would only repeat the airport feed.
Tailodds’ model gives the 42 departures scheduled from BWI 6–9 PM Saturday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 37%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 60%Horizon 9.6 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 56% → 62% since the 6:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 42 departures scheduled from BWI 3–6 PM Saturday an average 62% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 62%Horizon 6.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 45% → 56% since the 6:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 50 departures scheduled from BWI 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 16%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 56%Horizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 40% → 58% since the 5:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 30 departures scheduled from BWI noon–3 PM Saturday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 58%Horizon 5.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 54% → 31%; calm-weather level 17%
Tailodds’ model gives the 50 departures scheduled from BWI 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 31%Horizon 7.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Of 15 arrivals that landed between 10:24 PM and 11:24 PM EST, 15 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at BWI arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 10:24 PM–11:24 PM ESTSample 15 flightsLate 100%Typical 19%
Tailodds’ model gives the 17 departures scheduled from BWI midnight–3 AM Saturday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 55%Horizon 1.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 65% → 91% since the 3:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 31 departures scheduled from BWI 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 91% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 50%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 91%Horizon 4.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 63% → 89% since the 3:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 57 departures scheduled from BWI 6–9 PM Friday an average 89% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 48%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 89%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Of 18 departures that took off between 11:09 AM and 12:09 PM EST, 9 left at least 15 minutes late. BWI typically sees 19% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 11:09 AM–12:09 PM ESTSample 18 flightsLate 50%Typical 19%
What changed: 59% → 51%; calm-weather level 44%
Tailodds’ model gives the 57 departures scheduled from BWI 6–9 PM Friday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 44%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 51%Horizon 6.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 69% at worst → 20% now
Of 25 departures that took off between 10:24 AM and 11:24 AM EST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. BWI typically sees 16% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 26% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 10:24 AM–11:24 AM ESTSample 25 flightsLate 20%Typical 16%
Tailodds’ model gives the 42 departures scheduled from BWI noon–3 PM Friday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 9:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 48%Horizon 2.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 71% → 42%
Of 12 arrivals that landed between 10:33 PM and 11:33 PM EST, 5 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at BWI arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 10:33 PM–11:33 PM ESTSample 12 flightsLate 42%Typical 19%
What changed: late share 72% → 60%
Of 20 departures that took off between 10:02 PM and 11:02 PM EST, 12 left at least 15 minutes late. BWI typically sees 52% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 10:02 PM–11:02 PM ESTSample 20 flightsLate 60%Typical 52%
What changed: 78% → 78% since the 6:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from BWI 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 78% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 55%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 78%Horizon 0.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 58 departures scheduled from BWI 6–9 PM Thursday an average 67% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 46%. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 67%Horizon 2.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 60% at worst → 17% now
Of 24 departures that took off between 8:09 PM and 9:09 PM EST, 4 left at least 15 minutes late. BWI typically sees 41% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 8:09 PM–9:09 PM ESTSample 24 flightsLate 17%Typical 41%
What changed: late share 67% at worst → 21% now
Of 24 departures that took off between 6:13 PM and 7:13 PM EST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. BWI typically sees 35% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 6:13 PM–7:13 PM ESTSample 24 flightsLate 21%Typical 35%
What changed: late share 77% at worst → 4% now
Of 24 departures that took off between 8:03 PM and 9:03 PM EST, 1 left at least 15 minutes late. BWI typically sees 41% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 8:03 PM–9:03 PM ESTSample 24 flightsLate 4%Typical 41%
What changed: late share 75% at worst → 0% now
Of 12 arrivals that landed between 10:46 PM and 11:46 PM EST, 0 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at BWI arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 10:46 PM–11:46 PM ESTSample 12 flightsLate 0%Typical 19%
What changed: late share 69% at worst → 14% now
Of 22 departures that took off between 7:50 PM and 8:50 PM EST, 3 left at least 15 minutes late. BWI typically sees 41% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 32 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 7:50 PM–8:50 PM ESTSample 22 flightsLate 14%Typical 41%
What changed: 59% → 52%; calm-weather level 49%
Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from BWI 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 49%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 52%Horizon 0.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Of 21 arrivals that landed between 9:30 PM and 10:30 PM EST, 10 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at BWI arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 9:30 PM–10:30 PM ESTSample 21 flightsLate 48%Typical 19%
Tailodds’ model gives the 34 departures scheduled from BWI 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 72% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 53%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 72%Horizon 0.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i
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