Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Live · checked FAA national advisories 2 minFAA NAS status <1 minForecast cycle 1 hLightning <1 minWeather observations 1 minFAA surface data 4 minFAA flight data 3 min
What changed: 55% → 69% since the 11:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 6–9 PM Sunday an average 69% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
What changed: 47% → 60% since the 5:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 35 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 3–6 PM Sunday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 13 departures that took off between 6:56 AM and 7:56 AM EST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. Indianapolis typically sees 8% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 6:56 AM–7:56 AM ESTSample 13 flightsLate 46%Typical 8%
Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesTimeline (1)View IND
Tailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from Indianapolis noon–3 PM Sunday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 42%Horizon 9.6 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 11%. From the 11:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
What changed: 44% → 68% since the 6:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 3–6 PM Saturday an average 68% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
What changed: 55% → 60% since the 6:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 31 departures scheduled from Indianapolis noon–3 PM Saturday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 24 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 12%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
What changed: 49% → 84% since the 2:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 6–9 PM Friday an average 84% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 14 arrivals that landed between 11:48 PM and 12:48 AM EST, 10 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Indianapolis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 11:48 PM–12:48 AM ESTSample 14 flightsLate 71%Typical 22%
Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesTimeline (1)View IND
Tailodds’ model gives the 27 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 6–9 PM Thursday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 35 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 3–6 PM Thursday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 12 departures that took off between 6:35 PM and 7:35 PM EST, 10 left at least 15 minutes late. Indianapolis typically sees 33% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 6–9 PM Monday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 16 departures that took off between 6:59 AM and 7:59 AM EST, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. Indianapolis typically sees 8% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 6:59 AM–7:59 AM ESTSample 16 flightsLate 50%Typical 8%
Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesTimeline (1)View IND
Of 13 arrivals that landed between 11:04 PM and 12:04 AM EST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Indianapolis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 11:04 PM–12:04 AM ESTSample 13 flightsLate 46%Typical 22%
Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesTimeline (1)View IND
Tailodds’ model gives the 41 departures scheduled from Indianapolis noon–3 PM Friday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 41 departures scheduled from Indianapolis noon–3 PM Friday an average 32% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 45 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 3–6 PM Friday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 43%Horizon 10.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 44 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 3–6 PM Monday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 31%Horizon 6.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
Tailodds’ model gives the 39 departures scheduled from Indianapolis noon–3 PM Monday an average 28% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 18%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 14 arrivals that landed between 11:09 PM and 12:09 AM EST, 10 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Indianapolis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 11:09 PM–12:09 AM ESTSample 14 flightsLate 71%Typical 22%
Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesTimeline (1)View IND
Of 13 arrivals that landed between 11:26 PM and 12:26 AM EDT, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Indianapolis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 11:26 PM–12:26 AM EDTSample 13 flightsLate 46%Typical 22%
Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesTimeline (1)View IND
Of 12 departures that took off between 8:13 PM and 9:13 PM EDT, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. Indianapolis typically sees 37% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Tailodds’ model gives the 36 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 6–9 PM Friday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 2:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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Confirmed
An official source (the FAA) reports it. We attribute it; we don’t independently verify it.
Observed
We measured it from FAA flight data: window, sample size and the typical level are on the item.
Forecast
Our model predicts it, with its probability, target, horizon and model version. It has not happened. How accurate is it?