Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Airline analyst: Every MVP detector is airport-wide, so a carrier view would only repeat the airport feed.
Tailodds’ model gives the 107 departures scheduled from MCO 3–6 PM Saturday an average 53% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 53%Horizon 9.1 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 101 departures scheduled from MCO noon–3 PM Saturday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 48%Horizon 8.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Of 13 arrivals that landed between 12:04 AM and 1:04 AM EST, 13 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 24% of arrivals at MCO arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 12:04 AM–1:04 AM ESTSample 13 flightsLate 100%Typical 24%
What changed: 48% → 30%; calm-weather level 17%
Tailodds’ model gives the 117 departures scheduled from MCO 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 30% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 12:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 30%Horizon 8.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
Of 13 departures that took off between 9:31 PM and 10:31 PM EST, 13 left at least 15 minutes late. MCO typically sees 47% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 9:31 PM–10:31 PM ESTSample 13 flightsLate 100%Typical 47%
Tailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from MCO 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 82% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 82%Horizon 4.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 49% → 86% since the 9:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 122 departures scheduled from MCO 6–9 PM Friday an average 86% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 86%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: departure delays no longer listed
FAA-reported departure delays at MCO (MCO) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 4:38 PM EST, in 4 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 3:57 PM EST.
What changed: late share 52% at worst → 23% now
Of 26 departures that took off between 2:23 PM and 3:23 PM EST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. MCO typically sees 27% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 2 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 2:23 PM–3:23 PM ESTSample 26 flightsLate 23%Typical 27%
Tailodds’ model gives the 93 departures scheduled from MCO 3–6 PM Friday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 48%Horizon 4.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 95 departures scheduled from MCO noon–3 PM Friday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 46%Horizon 1.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 56% → 63%
Of 19 arrivals that landed between 11:50 PM and 12:50 AM EST, 12 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 24% of arrivals at MCO arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 11:50 PM–12:50 AM ESTSample 19 flightsLate 63%Typical 24%
Of 20 departures that took off between 9:03 PM and 10:03 PM EST, 14 left at least 15 minutes late. MCO typically sees 49% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 9:03 PM–10:03 PM ESTSample 20 flightsLate 70%Typical 49%
What changed: late share 58% at worst → 27% now
Of 30 arrivals that landed between 5:06 PM and 6:06 PM EST, 8 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 24% of arrivals at MCO arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 5:06 PM–6:06 PM ESTSample 30 flightsLate 27%Typical 24%
Tailodds’ model gives the 118 departures scheduled from MCO 6–9 PM Thursday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 50%Horizon 2.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Of 18 arrivals that landed between 11:52 PM and 12:52 AM EST, 10 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 24% of arrivals at MCO arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 11:52 PM–12:52 AM ESTSample 18 flightsLate 56%Typical 24%
What changed: late share 47% at worst → 21% now
Of 34 arrivals that landed between 6:44 PM and 7:44 PM EST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 24% of arrivals at MCO arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 6:44 PM–7:44 PM ESTSample 34 flightsLate 21%Typical 24%
What changed: late share 64% at worst → 21% now
Of 28 departures that took off between 5:35 PM and 6:35 PM EST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. MCO typically sees 38% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 5:35 PM–6:35 PM ESTSample 28 flightsLate 21%Typical 38%
What changed: late share 52% → 67%
Of 18 arrivals that landed between 11:55 PM and 12:55 AM EST, 12 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 24% of arrivals at MCO arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 11:55 PM–12:55 AM ESTSample 18 flightsLate 67%Typical 24%
What changed: late share 50% → 81%
Of 31 departures that took off between 7:52 PM and 8:52 PM EST, 25 left at least 15 minutes late. MCO typically sees 45% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 7:52 PM–8:52 PM ESTSample 31 flightsLate 81%Typical 45%
What changed: 69% → 68% since the 5:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 48 departures scheduled from MCO 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 68% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 44%. From the 6:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 68%Horizon 2.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 65% → 71% since the 4:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 147 departures scheduled from MCO 6–9 PM Friday an average 71% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 42%. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 71%Horizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 52% at worst → 25% now
Of 24 arrivals that landed between 2:28 PM and 3:28 PM EST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 24% of arrivals at MCO arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 2:28 PM–3:28 PM ESTSample 24 flightsLate 25%Typical 24%
Tailodds’ model gives the 123 departures scheduled from MCO 3–6 PM Friday an average 53% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 53%Horizon 3.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 118 departures scheduled from MCO noon–3 PM Friday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 47%Horizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
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