Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
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▲ about 19 → 25 expected cancellations since the 10:00 PM CST forecast
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Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 25 of the 237 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 PM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Of 13 arrivals that landed between 10:22 PM and 11:22 PM CST, 12 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at O'Hare arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View ORD
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 19 of the 238 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 PM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Tailodds’ model gives the 238 departures scheduled from O'Hare 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 10:00 PM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 15 departures scheduled from O'Hare 3–6 AM Saturday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 14%. From the 10:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
▲ 41% → 59% since the 8:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)
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Tailodds’ model gives the 19 departures scheduled from O'Hare midnight–3 AM Saturday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 10:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
▲ about 22 → 25 expected cancellations since the 8:00 PM CST forecast
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Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 25 of the 231 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 9:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Of 20 departures that took off between 8:31 PM and 9:31 PM CST, 19 left at least 15 minutes late. O'Hare typically sees 34% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View ORD
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 22 of the 231 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 PM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Tailodds’ model gives the 231 departures scheduled from O'Hare 6–9 AM Saturday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 16%. From the 8:00 PM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 16 departures scheduled from O'Hare midnight–3 AM Saturday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 8:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
▲ about 43 → 50 expected cancellations since the 6:00 PM CST forecast
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Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 50 of the 138 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (36%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
FAA-reported departure delays at O'Hare (ORD) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 8:10 PM CST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 8:07 PM CST.
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 14/0116 - 14/0130 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP HAS BEEN CANCELLED.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
FAA-reported departure delays at O'Hare (ORD) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 7:25 PM CST, in 4 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 7:10 PM CST.
▲ about 24 → 43 expected cancellations since the 5:00 PM CST forecast
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Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 43 of the 137 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (31%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2245 - 14/0400 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER GROUND STOP REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS ENROUTE FACILITIES RECOVER, FLIGHTS WILL BE ALLOWED TO DEPART THROUGH COORDINATION WITH THE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEM COMMAND CENTER.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
▲ about 14 → 24 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM CST forecast
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Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 24 of the 140 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (17%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
▲ about 40 → 59 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM CST forecast
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Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 59 of the 233 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (25%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
FAA-reported departure delays at O'Hare (ORD) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 5:25 PM CST, in 4 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 5:12 PM CST.
Of 27 arrivals that landed between 3:59 PM and 4:59 PM CST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at O'Hare arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View ORD
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 14 of the 140 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.