Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Live · checked FAA national advisories 4 minFAA NAS status 1 minForecast cycle 1 hLightning 1 minWeather observations 4 minFAA surface data 2 minFAA flight data 1 min
What changed: 42% → 60% since the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 27 departures scheduled from Tampa 6–9 PM Saturday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 60%Horizon 5.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
Of 13 departures that took off between 10:25 AM and 11:25 AM EST, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. Tampa typically sees 17% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 10:25 AM–11:25 AM ESTSample 13 flightsLate 54%Typical 17%
Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesTimeline (1)View TPA
What changed: 49% → 56% since the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 50 departures scheduled from Tampa 3–6 PM Saturday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 56%Horizon 5.6 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: 50% → 59% since the 5:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 47 departures scheduled from Tampa noon–3 PM Saturday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 27 departures scheduled from Tampa 6–9 PM Saturday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 42%Horizon 9.6 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 38 departures scheduled from Tampa 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 11%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 50 departures scheduled from Tampa 3–6 PM Saturday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 49%Horizon 9.1 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 47 departures scheduled from Tampa noon–3 PM Saturday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 47 departures scheduled from Tampa noon–3 PM Saturday an average 32% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 47 departures scheduled from Tampa noon–3 PM Saturday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 39 departures scheduled from Tampa 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 26% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 11%. From the 12:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 39 departures scheduled from Tampa 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 11%. From the 11:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 14 departures that took off between 9:41 PM and 10:41 PM EST, 14 left at least 15 minutes late. Tampa typically sees 40% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Tailodds’ model gives the 15 departures scheduled from Tampa 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 78% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
What changed: 45% → 87% since the 8:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 45 departures scheduled from Tampa 6–9 PM Friday an average 87% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 15 departures that took off between 12:00 PM and 1:00 PM EST, 2 left at least 15 minutes late. Tampa typically sees 19% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 12 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Of 15 departures that took off between 9:59 AM and 10:59 AM EST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. Tampa typically sees 17% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 9:59 AM–10:59 AM ESTSample 15 flightsLate 40%Typical 17%
Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesTimeline (2)View TPA
Tailodds’ model gives the 44 departures scheduled from Tampa 6–9 PM Friday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 52 departures scheduled from Tampa 3–6 PM Friday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 44%Horizon 10.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
Of 12 arrivals that landed between 12:19 AM and 1:19 AM EST, 8 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Tampa arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 12:19 AM–1:19 AM ESTSample 12 flightsLate 67%Typical 23%
Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesTimeline (2)View TPA
Of 15 arrivals that landed between 11:06 PM and 12:06 AM EST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Tampa arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 11:06 PM–12:06 AM ESTSample 15 flightsLate 47%Typical 23%
Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesTimeline (2)View TPA
What changed: 45% → 65% since the 2:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 17 departures scheduled from Tampa 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 65% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 13 departures that took off between 7:15 PM and 8:15 PM EST, 9 left at least 15 minutes late. Tampa typically sees 36% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
What changed: 44% → 58% since the 1:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 48 departures scheduled from Tampa 6–9 PM Thursday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 13 departures that took off between 4:12 PM and 5:12 PM EST, 3 left at least 15 minutes late. Tampa typically sees 30% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 4 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.