Tailodds’ model gives the 52 departures scheduled from Tampa 3–6 PM Friday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
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Of 12 arrivals that landed between 12:19 AM and 1:19 AM EST, 8 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Tampa arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
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Tampa: 11 of 16 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn
Tight turns 11 of 16Of the 19 departures scheduled from Tampa (TPA) between 8:27 PM and 9:57 PM EST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 16. For 11 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into TPA is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules
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Model raises Tampa departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 65%
▲ 45% → 65% since the 2:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)Loading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 17 departures scheduled from Tampa 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 65% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 13 departures that took off between 7:15 PM and 8:15 PM EST, 9 left at least 15 minutes late. Tampa typically sees 36% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
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Model raises Tampa departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 58%
▲ 44% → 58% since the 1:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)Loading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 48 departures scheduled from Tampa 6–9 PM Thursday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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Tampa departures back near normal: 23% late in the last hour
late share 50% at worst → 23% nowLoading earlier updates…
Of 13 departures that took off between 4:12 PM and 5:12 PM EST, 3 left at least 15 minutes late. Tampa typically sees 30% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 4 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
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Tailodds’ model gives the 48 departures scheduled from Tampa 3–6 PM Thursday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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Tampa arrivals running late: 50% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour
50% lateOf 12 arrivals that landed between 11:33 PM and 12:33 AM EST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Tampa arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
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Tailodds’ model gives the 17 departures scheduled from Tampa 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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Tampa departures back near normal: 12% late in the last hour
late share 54% at worst → 12% nowLoading earlier updates…
Of 16 departures that took off between 12:02 PM and 1:02 PM EST, 2 left at least 15 minutes late. Tampa typically sees 19% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 12 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
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Tampa arrivals running late: 50% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour
50% lateOf 14 arrivals that landed between 11:27 PM and 12:27 AM EST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Tampa arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
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Tailodds’ model gives the 56 departures scheduled from Tampa 3–6 PM Saturday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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Of 16 arrivals that landed between 11:30 PM and 12:30 AM EST, 10 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Tampa arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
4 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
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Tampa departure delays ease: 67% late in the last hour, still above normal
▼ late share 85% → 67%Loading earlier updates…
Of 21 departures that took off between 6:48 PM and 7:48 PM EST, 14 left at least 15 minutes late. Tampa typically sees 36% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
3 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
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Model raises Tampa departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 67%
▲ 58% → 67% since the 2:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)Loading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 22 departures scheduled from Tampa 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 67% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 41%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 61 departures scheduled from Tampa 6–9 PM Friday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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Tampa departures back near normal: 15% late in the last hour
late share 58% at worst → 15% nowLoading earlier updates…
Of 13 departures that took off between 1:21 PM and 2:21 PM EST, 2 left at least 15 minutes late. Tampa typically sees 25% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
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Tailodds’ model gives the 62 departures scheduled from Tampa 3–6 PM Friday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 61 departures scheduled from Tampa noon–3 PM Friday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 24 departures scheduled from Tampa 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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Tampa aircraft turns back near normal: 1 of 13 departures in the next 90 min are tight
tight share 44% at worst → 8% nowLoading earlier updates…
Of the 16 departures scheduled from Tampa (TPA) between 6:59 PM and 8:29 PM EST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 13. For 1 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into TPA is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late. The tight share has stayed at or below 12% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with current data.
2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules
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Tampa departures back near normal: 27% late in the last hour
late share 53% at worst → 27% nowLoading earlier updates…
Of 15 departures that took off between 4:38 PM and 5:38 PM EST, 4 left at least 15 minutes late. Tampa typically sees 34% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 5 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
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Tailodds’ model gives the 55 departures scheduled from Tampa 6–9 PM Wednesday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 3:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 13 departures that took off between 4:00 PM and 5:00 PM EST, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. Tampa typically sees 30% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 4 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
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- An official source (the FAA) reports it. We attribute it; we don’t independently verify it.
- Observed
- We measured it from FAA flight data: window, sample size and the typical level are on the item.
- Forecast
- Our model predicts it, with its probability, target, horizon and model version. It has not happened. How accurate is it?