Will your flight be late?
Tell us the flight. Pick the day you’re flying and we’ll give you the odds; they get sharper as the weather forecast, the FAA and your plane’s earlier flights come into focus.
0ground stops in effect right now
3FAA delay programs right now
22%average chance of a late departure on Thursday
<1%average chance of a cancellation on Thursday
Typical odds Too early for a weather forecast — these are typical odds for departures at these airports on a Thursday in October, from the weather this date has had in past years. They’ll switch to forecast-based odds about 3 days before departure.
Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
Airports on Thursday, October 15
Typical odds for Thu, Oct 15, worst first. Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET.
- Chance a departure that hour leaves 15+ min late on a normal day
- Extra today
PHX
Phoenix
#1
Departure delays 16 minutes–30 minutes
27%
leave 15+ min late
1%
cancelled, ~8 of 654
+4 pts above normal
25%
Worst hour 6 PM · 45%
Clear
DFW
Dallas–Fort Worth
#2
27%
leave 15+ min late
1%
cancelled, ~12 of 1059
+5 pts above normal
25%
Worst hour 6 PM · 37%
Clear
LAS
Las Vegas
#3
27%
leave 15+ min late
<1%
cancelled, ~5 of 611
+2 pts above normal
25%
Worst hour 9 PM · 45%
Clear
DEN
Denver
#4
26%
leave 15+ min late
<1%
cancelled, ~7 of 1030
+4 pts above normal
25%
Worst hour 6 PM · 39%
Clear
ORD
Chicago O'Hare
#5
25%
leave 15+ min late
1%
cancelled, ~18 of 1298
+7 pts above normal
25%
Worst hour 8 PM · 34%
Clear
SFO
San Francisco
#6
25%
leave 15+ min late
<1%
cancelled, ~6 of 602
+5 pts above normal
25%
Worst hour 3 PM · 35%
Clear
LGA
New York LaGuardia
#7
Delay program, avg 32 min (wind)
25%
leave 15+ min late
1%
cancelled, ~7 of 520
+7 pts above normal
25%
Worst hour 8 PM · 41%
Clear
BWI
Baltimore/Washington
#8
24%
leave 15+ min late
<1%
cancelled, ~2 of 294
+2 pts above normal
25%
Worst hour 10 PM · 40%
Clear
EWR
Newark
#9
23%
leave 15+ min late
1%
cancelled, ~6 of 516
+5 pts above normal
25%
Worst hour 8 PM · 37%
Clear
LAX
Los Angeles
#10
23%
leave 15+ min late
<1%
cancelled, ~7 of 750
+3 pts above normal
25%
Worst hour 7 PM · 32%
Clear
FLL
Fort Lauderdale
#11
23%
leave 15+ min late
<1%
cancelled, ~3 of 312
+4 pts above normal
25%
Worst hour 8 PM · 38%
Clear
MIA
Miami
#12
22%
leave 15+ min late
<1%
cancelled, ~4 of 470
+4 pts above normal
25%
Worst hour 8 PM · 34%
Clear
DCA
Washington National
#13
22%
leave 15+ min late
1%
cancelled, ~5 of 437
+4 pts above normal
25%
Worst hour 6 PM · 33%
Clear
CLT
Charlotte
#14
22%
leave 15+ min late
1%
cancelled, ~8 of 761
+3 pts above normal
25%
Worst hour 11 PM · 34%
Clear
IAH
Houston Bush
#15
22%
leave 15+ min late
<1%
cancelled, ~6 of 612
+4 pts above normal
25%
Worst hour 7 PM · 31%
Clear
BOS
Boston Logan
#16
Delay program, avg 75 min (low ceilings)
21%
leave 15+ min late
<1%
cancelled, ~5 of 582
+5 pts above normal
25%
Worst hour 7 PM · 34%
Clear
MCO
Orlando
#17
21%
leave 15+ min late
<1%
cancelled, ~4 of 540
+3 pts above normal
25%
Worst hour 8 PM · 34%
Clear
SEA
Seattle–Tacoma
#18
21%
leave 15+ min late
<1%
cancelled, ~4 of 601
+3 pts above normal
25%
Worst hour 8 PM · 28%
Clear
PHL
Philadelphia
#19
20%
leave 15+ min late
1%
cancelled, ~5 of 455
+3 pts above normal
25%
Worst hour 6 PM · 29%
Clear
JFK
New York JFK
#20
20%
leave 15+ min late
1%
cancelled, ~6 of 568
+4 pts above normal
25%
Worst hour 7 PM · 29%
Clear
DTW
Detroit
#21
19%
leave 15+ min late
<1%
cancelled, ~4 of 458
+5 pts above normal
25%
Worst hour 8 PM · 28%
Clear
ATL
Atlanta
#22
19%
leave 15+ min late
<1%
cancelled, ~8 of 1145
+3 pts above normal
25%
Worst hour 6 PM · 31%
Clear
MSP
Minneapolis–St Paul
#23
17%
leave 15+ min late
<1%
cancelled, ~4 of 465
+4 pts above normal
25%
Worst hour 4 PM · 28%
Clear
IAD
Washington Dulles
#24
16%
leave 15+ min late
<1%
cancelled, ~3 of 355
+2 pts above normal
25%
Worst hour 6 PM · 24%
Clear
SLC
Salt Lake City
#25
16%
leave 15+ min late
<1%
cancelled, ~2 of 358
+2 pts above normal
25%
Worst hour 7 PM · 27%
Clear
Table view
| # | Airport | FAA status | Late departure | Vs. normal | Cancelled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PHX Phoenix | Departure delays 16 minutes–30 minutes | 27% | +4 pts | 1% |
| 2 | DFW Dallas–Fort Worth | Normal operations | 27% | +5 pts | 1% |
| 3 | LAS Las Vegas | Normal operations | 27% | +2 pts | <1% |
| 4 | DEN Denver | Normal operations | 26% | +4 pts | <1% |
| 5 | ORD Chicago O'Hare | Normal operations | 25% | +7 pts | 1% |
| 6 | SFO San Francisco | Normal operations | 25% | +5 pts | <1% |
| 7 | LGA New York LaGuardia | Delay program, avg 32 min (wind) | 25% | +7 pts | 1% |
| 8 | BWI Baltimore/Washington | Normal operations | 24% | +2 pts | <1% |
| 9 | EWR Newark | Normal operations | 23% | +5 pts | 1% |
| 10 | LAX Los Angeles | Normal operations | 23% | +3 pts | <1% |
| 11 | FLL Fort Lauderdale | Normal operations | 23% | +4 pts | <1% |
| 12 | MIA Miami | Normal operations | 22% | +4 pts | <1% |
| 13 | DCA Washington National | Normal operations | 22% | +4 pts | 1% |
| 14 | CLT Charlotte | Normal operations | 22% | +3 pts | 1% |
| 15 | IAH Houston Bush | Normal operations | 22% | +4 pts | <1% |
| 16 | BOS Boston Logan | Delay program, avg 75 min (low ceilings) | 21% | +5 pts | <1% |
| 17 | MCO Orlando | Normal operations | 21% | +3 pts | <1% |
| 18 | SEA Seattle–Tacoma | Normal operations | 21% | +3 pts | <1% |
| 19 | PHL Philadelphia | Normal operations | 20% | +3 pts | 1% |
| 20 | JFK New York JFK | Normal operations | 20% | +4 pts | 1% |
| 21 | DTW Detroit | Normal operations | 19% | +5 pts | <1% |
| 22 | ATL Atlanta | Normal operations | 19% | +3 pts | <1% |
| 23 | MSP Minneapolis–St Paul | Normal operations | 17% | +4 pts | <1% |
| 24 | IAD Washington Dulles | Normal operations | 16% | +2 pts | <1% |
| 25 | SLC Salt Lake City | Normal operations | 16% | +2 pts | <1% |
“Above normal” (the red part of each bar) is how much worse the late-departure chance is than our estimate for the same flights on a normal day — today that’s the weather forecast; live FAA and airport conditions will join it. Every chart uses the same scale. Airports with too little flight data aren’t shown. Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.