tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories <1 minFAA NAS status <1 minForecast cycle 2 hLightning 1 minWeather observations 1 minFAA surface data 3 minFAA flight data 3 min
Forecast Major Resolved Delay PHX departures

Model raises Phoenix departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 70%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
Create monitor View PHXFlights at PHX

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 44% delay risk for Phoenix departures noon–3 PM Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 109 departures scheduled from Phoenix noon–3 PM Friday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 2:00 PM MST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHX departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-30 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)44% over 109 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Oct 29, 2:00 PM MST · 21.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-29 21:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts Phoenix departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday at 60%

    What changed: 44% → 60% since the 2:00 PM MST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 109 departures scheduled from Phoenix noon–3 PM Friday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 7:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHX departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-30 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)60% over 109 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 30, 7:00 AM MST · 4.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-30 14:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Phoenix departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 70%

    What changed: 60% → 70% since the 7:00 AM MST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 109 departures scheduled from Phoenix noon–3 PM Friday an average 70% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 8:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHX departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-30 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)70% over 109 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 30, 8:00 AM MST · 3.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-30 15:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Fri Oct 30, 12:00 PM MST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.