tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 225 h staleForecast cycle 2 hLightning 225 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 3 minFAA flight data 3 min

FAA NAS status is stale (225 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (225 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay PHX departures

Model lowers Phoenix departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 68%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
4
Create monitor View PHXFlights at PHX

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 55% delay risk for Phoenix departures 3–6 PM Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 117 departures scheduled from Phoenix 3–6 PM Friday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 4:00 PM MST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHX departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-30 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)55% over 117 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Oct 29, 4:00 PM MST · 22.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-29 23:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts Phoenix departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday at 63%

    What changed: 55% → 63% since the 4:00 PM MST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 120 departures scheduled from Phoenix 3–6 PM Friday an average 63% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 6:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHX departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-30 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)63% over 120 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 30, 6:00 AM MST · 7.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-30 14:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Phoenix departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 79%

    What changed: 63% → 79% since the 6:00 AM MST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 120 departures scheduled from Phoenix 3–6 PM Friday an average 79% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 43%. From the 9:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHX departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-30 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)79% over 120 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 30, 9:00 AM MST · 5.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-30 16:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  4. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers Phoenix departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 68%

    What changed: 79% → 68% since the 9:00 AM MST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 122 departures scheduled from Phoenix 3–6 PM Friday an average 68% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 43%. From the 2:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHX departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-30 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)68% over 122 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 30, 2:00 PM MST · 0.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-30 21:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Fri Oct 30, 3:01 PM MST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.