tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Significant Resolved Delay MIA departures

Model raises Miami departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Saturday to 64%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
5
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 52% delay risk for Miami departures 9 PM–midnight Saturday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 61 departures scheduled from Miami 9 PM–midnight Saturday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 7:00 AM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-17 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)52% over 61 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Oct 17, 7:00 AM EDT · 12.4 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-17 12:34 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-16.2 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts Miami departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Saturday at 66%

    What changed: 52% → 66% since the 7:00 AM EDT forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 61 departures scheduled from Miami 9 PM–midnight Saturday an average 66% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 12:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-17 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)66% over 61 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Oct 17, 12:00 PM EDT · 8.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-17 16:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers Miami departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Saturday to 56%

    What changed: 66% → 56% since the 12:00 PM EDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 61 departures scheduled from Miami 9 PM–midnight Saturday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 43%. From the 3:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-17 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)56% over 61 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Oct 17, 3:00 PM EDT · 4.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-17 20:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  4. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers Miami departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Saturday to 51%

    What changed: 56% → 51% since the 3:00 PM EDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 61 departures scheduled from Miami 9 PM–midnight Saturday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 4:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-17 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)51% over 61 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Oct 17, 4:00 PM EDT · 4.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-17 20:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  5. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Miami departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Saturday to 64%

    What changed: 51% → 64% since the 4:00 PM EDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 61 departures scheduled from Miami 9 PM–midnight Saturday an average 64% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 41%. From the 7:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-17 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)64% over 61 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Oct 17, 7:00 PM EDT · 1.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-17 23:55 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Sat Oct 17, 9:00 PM EDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.