Model lowers Minneapolis departure delay risk 6–9 AM Sunday to 32%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 11:57 PM CST
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 2
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 42% delay risk for Minneapolis departures 6–9 AM Sunday
Tailodds’ model gives the 88 departures scheduled from Minneapolis 6–9 AM Sunday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 9%. From the 8:00 PM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target MSP departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 42% over 88 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 8:00 PM CST · 9.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 02:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers Minneapolis departure delay risk 6–9 AM Sunday to 32%, near normal
What changed: 42% → 32%; calm-weather level 9%
Tailodds’ model gives the 88 departures scheduled from Minneapolis 6–9 AM Sunday an average 32% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 9%. From the 11:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target MSP departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 32% over 88 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 11:00 PM CST · 6.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 05:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?