tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 2 minFAA NAS status 2 minForecast cycle 1 hLightning 1 minWeather observations 6 minFAA surface data 4 minFAA flight data 4 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Delay MSP departures

Updated model puts Minneapolis departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Sunday at 38%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View MSPFlights at MSP

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 48% delay risk for Minneapolis departures 9 AM–noon Sunday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 107 departures scheduled from Minneapolis 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 12%. From the 10:00 PM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMSP departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)48% over 107 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 10:00 PM CST · 10.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 04:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  2. De-escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts Minneapolis departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Sunday at 38%

    What changed: 48% → 38% since the 10:00 PM CST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 109 departures scheduled from Minneapolis 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 38% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 12%. From the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMSP departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)38% over 109 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 1:00 AM CST · 6.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 08:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Sun Nov 15, 9:00 AM CST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.