tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Major Resolved Cancellation TPA departures

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 4 among Tampa departures 9 AM–noon Sunday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
4
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 6 cancellations among Tampa departures 9 AM–noon Sunday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 42 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (15%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 11:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetTPA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~6.3 over 42 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 11:00 PM EST · 9.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 04:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises expected cancellations to about 20 among Tampa departures 9 AM–noon Sunday

    What changed: about 6 → 20 expected cancellations since the 11:00 PM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 20 of the 42 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (48%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetTPA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~20.0 over 42 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 4:00 AM EST · 4.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 09:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers expected cancellations to about 6 among Tampa departures 9 AM–noon Sunday

    What changed: about 20 → 6 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 42 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (14%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetTPA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~5.7 over 42 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 5:00 AM EST · 3.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 10:55 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  4. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers expected cancellations to about 4 among Tampa departures 9 AM–noon Sunday

    What changed: about 6 → 4 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 4 of the 42 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetTPA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~4.4 over 42 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 7:00 AM EST · 0.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 13:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Sun Nov 15, 9:01 AM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.