Model lowers expected cancellations among Tampa departures noon–3 PM Sunday to about 2
- Current state
- Resolved at 10:57 AM EST
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 20 cancellations among Tampa departures noon–3 PM Sunday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 20 of the 43 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (46%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target TPA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~19.9 over 43 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 4:00 AM EST · 7.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 09:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 5 among Tampa departures noon–3 PM Sunday
What changed: about 20 → 5 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 43 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target TPA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~5.2 over 43 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM EST · 6.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 10:55 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations among Tampa departures noon–3 PM Sunday to about 2
What changed: about 5 → 2
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 43 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target TPA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~2.3 over 43 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 10:00 AM EST · 1.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 15:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?