Model raises Tampa departure delay risk 6–9 PM Sunday to 61%
- Current state
- Developing
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 4
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
-
Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 47% delay risk for Tampa departures 6–9 PM Sunday
Tailodds’ model gives the 53 departures scheduled from Tampa 6–9 PM Sunday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target TPA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 47% over 53 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 7:00 AM EST · 9.6 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 13:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model puts Tampa departure delay risk 6–9 PM Sunday at 55%
What changed: 47% → 55% since the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 53 departures scheduled from Tampa 6–9 PM Sunday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 9:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target TPA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 55% over 53 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 9:00 AM EST · 8.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 14:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers Tampa departure delay risk 6–9 PM Sunday to 54%
What changed: 55% → 54% since the 9:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 53 departures scheduled from Tampa 6–9 PM Sunday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target TPA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 54% over 53 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 10:00 AM EST · 7.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 15:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Tampa departure delay risk 6–9 PM Sunday to 61%
What changed: 54% → 61% since the 10:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 53 departures scheduled from Tampa 6–9 PM Sunday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target TPA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 61% over 53 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 11:00 AM EST · 6.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 16:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?