Model raises Tampa departure delay risk noon–3 PM Sunday to 55%
- Current state
- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 6
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 46% delay risk for Tampa departures noon–3 PM Sunday
Tailodds’ model gives the 43 departures scheduled from Tampa noon–3 PM Sunday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target TPA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 46% over 43 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 1:00 AM EST · 9.6 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 07:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model puts Tampa departure delay risk noon–3 PM Sunday at 57%
What changed: 46% → 57% since the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 43 departures scheduled from Tampa noon–3 PM Sunday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target TPA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 57% over 43 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 4:00 AM EST · 7.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 09:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers Tampa departure delay risk noon–3 PM Sunday to 51%
What changed: 57% → 51% since the 4:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 43 departures scheduled from Tampa noon–3 PM Sunday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target TPA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 51% over 43 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM EST · 6.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 10:55 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Tampa departure delay risk noon–3 PM Sunday to 56%
What changed: 51% → 56% since the 5:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 43 departures scheduled from Tampa noon–3 PM Sunday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 16%. From the 9:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target TPA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 56% over 43 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 9:00 AM EST · 2.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 14:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers Tampa departure delay risk noon–3 PM Sunday to 50%
What changed: 56% → 50% since the 9:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 43 departures scheduled from Tampa noon–3 PM Sunday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 16%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target TPA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 50% over 43 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 10:00 AM EST · 1.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 15:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Tampa departure delay risk noon–3 PM Sunday to 55%
What changed: 50% → 55% since the 10:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 43 departures scheduled from Tampa noon–3 PM Sunday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 16%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target TPA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 55% over 43 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 11:00 AM EST · 0.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 16:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Sun Nov 15, 12:00 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.