Model lowers expected cancellations among Tampa departures 3–6 PM Sunday to about 3
- Current state
- Resolved at 10:57 AM EST
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 15 cancellations among Tampa departures 3–6 PM Sunday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 15 of the 49 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (30%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target TPA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~14.8 over 49 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 4:00 AM EST · 10.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 09:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 4 among Tampa departures 3–6 PM Sunday
What changed: about 15 → 4 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 4 of the 49 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target TPA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~4.3 over 49 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM EST · 9.1 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 10:55 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations among Tampa departures 3–6 PM Sunday to about 3
What changed: about 4 → 3
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 50 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target TPA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~2.8 over 50 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 10:00 AM EST · 4.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 15:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?