Model lowers expected cancellations to about 11 among Tampa departures 6–9 AM Sunday
- Current state
- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 7 cancellations among Tampa departures 6–9 AM Sunday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 61 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target TPA departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~7.1 over 61 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 7:00 PM EST · 9.5 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 01:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model now expects about 9 among Tampa departures 6–9 AM Sunday
What changed: about 7 → 9 expected cancellations since the 7:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 61 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (15%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target TPA departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~9.4 over 61 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 10:00 PM EST · 7.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 03:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 7 among Tampa departures 6–9 AM Sunday
What changed: about 9 → 7 expected cancellations since the 10:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 62 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target TPA departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~7.4 over 62 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 3:00 AM EST · 2.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 08:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 30 among Tampa departures 6–9 AM Sunday
What changed: about 7 → 30 expected cancellations since the 3:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 30 of the 62 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (48%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target TPA departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~29.8 over 62 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 4:00 AM EST · 1.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 09:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 11 among Tampa departures 6–9 AM Sunday
What changed: about 30 → 11 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 63 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (17%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target TPA departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~11.0 over 63 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM EST · 0.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 10:55 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Sun Nov 15, 6:01 AM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.