tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Significant Resolved Delay TPA departures

Model lowers Tampa departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Sunday to 49%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 46% delay risk for Tampa departures 9 AM–noon Sunday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 42 departures scheduled from Tampa 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 11%. From the 11:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetTPA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)46% over 42 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 11:00 PM EST · 9.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 04:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Tampa departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Sunday to 56%

    What changed: 46% → 56% since the 11:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 42 departures scheduled from Tampa 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 11%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetTPA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)56% over 42 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 4:00 AM EST · 4.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 09:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers Tampa departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Sunday to 49%

    What changed: 56% → 49% since the 4:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 42 departures scheduled from Tampa 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 11%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetTPA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)49% over 42 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 5:00 AM EST · 3.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 10:55 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Sun Nov 15, 9:01 AM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.