Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Airline analyst: Every MVP detector is airport-wide, so a carrier view would only repeat the airport feed.
What changed: end 12:30 PM CST → 1:15 PM CST
The FAA’s airport status lists a ground stop for flights bound for Austin (AUS), citing “low ceilings”. Flights to AUS are held at their departure airports until 1:15 PM CST. The FAA lists the chance of an extension as “MEDIUM”.
What changed: about 5 → 9 expected cancellations since the 10:00 AM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 64 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 11:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~9 cancellationsHorizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
The FAA’s airport status lists a ground stop for flights bound for Austin (AUS), citing “low ceilings”. Flights to AUS are held at their departure airports until 12:30 PM CST. The FAA lists the chance of an extension as “MEDIUM”.
What changed: about 7 → 6 expected cancellations since the 9:00 AM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 67 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~6 cancellationsHorizon 4.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 7 → 5 expected cancellations since the 9:00 AM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 63 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~6 cancellationsHorizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Of the 22 departures scheduled from Austin (AUS) between 10:46 AM and 12:16 PM CST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 17. For 9 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into AUS is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.
Next 10:46 AM–12:16 PM CSTTight turns 9 of 17Share 53%
Of 13 arrivals that landed between 9:46 AM and 10:46 AM CST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Austin arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 9:46 AM–10:46 AM CSTSample 13 flightsLate 46%Typical 22%
What changed: about 9 → 5 expected cancellations since the 7:00 AM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 53 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Sunday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 9:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~6 cancellationsHorizon 8.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: about 12 → 7 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 67 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 9:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~7 cancellationsHorizon 5.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 11 → 7 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 63 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 9:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~7 cancellationsHorizon 2.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: late share 56% → 72%
Of 18 departures that took off between 8:41 AM and 9:41 AM CST, 13 left at least 15 minutes late. Austin typically sees 12% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 8:41 AM–9:41 AM CSTSample 18 flightsLate 72%Typical 12%
Of 16 departures that took off between 8:00 AM and 9:00 AM CST, 9 left at least 15 minutes late. Austin typically sees 12% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 8:00 AM–9:00 AM CSTSample 16 flightsLate 56%Typical 12%
What changed: about 7 → 5 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 42 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 8:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~5 cancellationsHorizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 7 → 9 expected cancellations since the 6:00 AM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 53 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Sunday to be cancelled (18%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~9 cancellationsHorizon 9.6 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 61% → 73% since the 6:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 53 departures scheduled from Austin 6–9 PM Sunday an average 73% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 7:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 73%Horizon 9.6 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 62% → 75% since the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 67 departures scheduled from Austin 3–6 PM Sunday an average 75% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 7:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 75%Horizon 6.6 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: 63% → 74% since the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 64 departures scheduled from Austin noon–3 PM Sunday an average 74% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 7:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 74%Horizon 3.6 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 53 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Sunday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~7 cancellationsHorizon 10.6 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 50% → 61% since the 6:00 PM CST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 53 departures scheduled from Austin 6–9 PM Sunday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 61%Horizon 10.6 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: about 8 → 12 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 12 of the 67 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (18%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~12 cancellationsHorizon 9.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
The 4:53 AM CST official weather observation (METAR) for Austin (AUS) reports ceiling 800 ft, visibility 10 mi or more, wind 7 kt. Source: NOAA Aviation Weather Center.
Observed 4:53 AM CST
What changed: about 5 → 8 expected cancellations since the 3:00 AM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 67 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~8 cancellationsHorizon 10.1 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 9 → 7 expected cancellations since the 11:00 PM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 41 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (18%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~7 cancellationsHorizon 4.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: about 13 → 10 expected cancellations since the 3:00 AM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 68 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (14%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~10 cancellationsHorizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 48% → 62% since the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 67 departures scheduled from Austin 3–6 PM Sunday an average 62% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 37%. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 62%Horizon 10.1 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4iModel changed
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