Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Airline analyst: Every MVP detector is airport-wide, so a carrier view would only repeat the airport feed.
Tailodds’ model gives the 42 departures scheduled from BWI 3–6 PM Saturday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 56%Horizon 8.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 40% → 58% since the 5:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 30 departures scheduled from BWI noon–3 PM Saturday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 58%Horizon 5.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 50 departures scheduled from BWI 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 45%Horizon 2.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 5 → 3
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 60 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~3 cancellationsHorizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 4 → 2
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 50 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~2 cancellationsHorizon 4.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 54% → 31%; calm-weather level 17%
Tailodds’ model gives the 50 departures scheduled from BWI 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 31%Horizon 7.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Of 15 arrivals that landed between 10:24 PM and 11:24 PM EST, 15 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at BWI arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 10:24 PM–11:24 PM ESTSample 15 flightsLate 100%Typical 19%
Tailodds’ model gives the 17 departures scheduled from BWI midnight–3 AM Saturday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 55%Horizon 1.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 14/0116 - 14/0130 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP HAS BEEN CANCELLED.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 30 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (18%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~5 cancellationsHorizon 0.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2245 - 14/0400 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER GROUND STOP REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS ENROUTE FACILITIES RECOVER, FLIGHTS WILL BE ALLOWED TO DEPART THROUGH COORDINATION WITH THE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEM COMMAND CENTER.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 57 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~7 cancellationsHorizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 65% → 91% since the 3:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 31 departures scheduled from BWI 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 91% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 50%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 91%Horizon 4.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 63% → 89% since the 3:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 57 departures scheduled from BWI 6–9 PM Friday an average 89% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 48%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 89%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2053 - 14/0400 DUE TO EXTRAORDINARY CIRCUMSTANCES AND FOR REASONS OF SAFETY. ATTENTION ALL AIRCRAFT OPERATORS, BY ORDER OF THE FEDERAL AVIATION COMMAND CENTER ALL AIRPORTS ARE GROUND STOPPED. ALL DEPARTING TRAFFIC SHOULD REMAIN GROUND STOPPED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. INBOUND INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS WILL BE MANAGED ON A CASE BY CASE BASIS.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2030 - 14/0500 THE ATCSCC HAS ACTIVATED THE DIVERSION RECOVERY TOOL FOR ALL AIRPORTS. CUSTOMERS SHOULD ENSURE THAT DVRSN IS INCLUDED IN FLIGHT PLAN REMARKS OF DIVERTED AIRCRAFT. NOTE THAT IF THERE IS A GROUND DELAY PROGRAM OR GROUND STOP IN EFFECT FOR THE DESTINATION AIRPORT DIVERTED FLIGHTS ARE NOT AUTOMATICALLY EXEMPT AND WILL STILL RECEIVE AN EDCT. UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTIFIED, DIVERSION RECOVERY WILL CLOSE AT THE END OF THE EVENT TIME SPECIFIED IN THIS ADVISORY.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
Of the 20 departures scheduled from BWI (BWI) between 2:56 PM and 4:26 PM EST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 17. For 8 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into BWI is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.
Next 2:56 PM–4:26 PM ESTTight turns 8 of 17Share 47%
Of 18 departures that took off between 11:09 AM and 12:09 PM EST, 9 left at least 15 minutes late. BWI typically sees 19% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 11:09 AM–12:09 PM ESTSample 18 flightsLate 50%Typical 19%
What changed: 59% → 51%; calm-weather level 44%
Tailodds’ model gives the 57 departures scheduled from BWI 6–9 PM Friday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 44%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 51%Horizon 6.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 69% at worst → 20% now
Of 25 departures that took off between 10:24 AM and 11:24 AM EST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. BWI typically sees 16% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 26% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 10:24 AM–11:24 AM ESTSample 25 flightsLate 20%Typical 16%
Tailodds’ model gives the 42 departures scheduled from BWI noon–3 PM Friday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 9:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 48%Horizon 2.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 71% → 42%
Of 12 arrivals that landed between 10:33 PM and 11:33 PM EST, 5 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at BWI arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 10:33 PM–11:33 PM ESTSample 12 flightsLate 42%Typical 19%
What changed: late share 72% → 60%
Of 20 departures that took off between 10:02 PM and 11:02 PM EST, 12 left at least 15 minutes late. BWI typically sees 52% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 10:02 PM–11:02 PM ESTSample 20 flightsLate 60%Typical 52%
What changed: tight share 54% → 45%
Of the 22 departures scheduled from BWI (BWI) between 9:59 PM and 11:29 PM EST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 22. For 10 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into BWI is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.
Next 9:59 PM–11:29 PM ESTTight turns 10 of 22Share 45%
What changed: 78% → 78% since the 6:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from BWI 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 78% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 55%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 78%Horizon 0.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i
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