Wire

National departures running late: 60% left 15+ min late in the last hour

Of 15 departures that took off between 12:06 PM and 1:06 PM EST, 9 left at least 15 minutes late. National typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 12 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

Window 12:06 PM–1:06 PM ESTSample 15 flightsLate 60%Typical 24%

Model raises expected cancellations to about 11 among National departures 6–9 PM Saturday

What changed: about 9 → 11 expected cancellations since the 11:00 AM EST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 48 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (22%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~11 cancellationsHorizon 5.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Model raises expected cancellations to about 14 among National departures 3–6 PM Saturday

What changed: about 11 → 14 expected cancellations since the 10:00 AM EST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 14 of the 68 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (20%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~14 cancellationsHorizon 2.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Model raises expected cancellations to about 9 among National departures 6–9 PM Saturday

What changed: about 7 → 9 expected cancellations since the 10:00 AM EST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 48 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (18%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~9 cancellationsHorizon 6.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Updated model puts National departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday at 57%

What changed: 48% → 57% since the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)

Tailodds’ model gives the 48 departures scheduled from National 6–9 PM Saturday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

Probability 57%Horizon 6.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

Model raises National departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 56%

What changed: 49% → 56% since the 6:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

Tailodds’ model gives the 67 departures scheduled from National noon–3 PM Saturday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 18%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

Probability 56%Horizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 7 among National departures 6–9 PM Saturday

What changed: about 22 → 7 expected cancellations since the 8:00 AM EST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 48 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (15%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~7 cancellationsHorizon 7.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Updated model now expects about 11 among National departures 3–6 PM Saturday

What changed: about 30 → 11 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM EST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 68 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (17%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~11 cancellationsHorizon 4.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 12 among National departures noon–3 PM Saturday

What changed: about 31 → 12 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM EST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 12 of the 68 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (18%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~12 cancellationsHorizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Updated model now expects about 22 among National departures 6–9 PM Saturday

What changed: about 18 → 22 expected cancellations since the 7:00 AM EST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 22 of the 48 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (46%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~22 cancellationsHorizon 8.6 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

Updated model puts National departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday at 56%

What changed: 42% → 56% since the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)

Tailodds’ model gives the 68 departures scheduled from National 3–6 PM Saturday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

Probability 56%Horizon 5.6 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

Model raises expected cancellations to about 18 among National departures 6–9 PM Saturday

What changed: about 6 → 18 expected cancellations since the 6:00 AM EST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 18 of the 48 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (38%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~18 cancellationsHorizon 9.6 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

Model raises expected cancellations to about 27 among National departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

What changed: about 24 → 27 expected cancellations since the 6:00 AM EST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 27 of the 63 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (43%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~27 cancellationsHorizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Model expects about 6 cancellations among National departures 6–9 PM Saturday

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 47 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~6 cancellationsHorizon 11.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 24 among National departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

What changed: about 26 → 24 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM EST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 24 of the 64 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (38%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~24 cancellationsHorizon 2.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Model raises expected cancellations to about 30 among National departures 3–6 PM Saturday

What changed: about 19 → 30 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM EST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 30 of the 68 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (44%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~30 cancellationsHorizon 9.1 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 31 among National departures noon–3 PM Saturday

What changed: about 33 → 31 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM EST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 31 of the 68 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (45%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~31 cancellationsHorizon 6.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 26 among National departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

What changed: about 28 → 26 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM EST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 26 of the 64 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (41%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~26 cancellationsHorizon 3.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Model expects about 19 cancellations among National departures 3–6 PM Saturday

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 19 of the 68 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (28%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~19 cancellationsHorizon 10.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

Updated model now expects about 33 among National departures noon–3 PM Saturday

What changed: about 5 → 33 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM EST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 33 of the 68 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (49%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~33 cancellationsHorizon 7.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

Model raises expected cancellations to about 28 among National departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

What changed: about 4 → 28 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 28 of the 64 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (44%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~28 cancellationsHorizon 4.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i