Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Airline analyst: Every MVP detector is airport-wide, so a carrier view would only repeat the airport feed.
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 42 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Saturday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Of 14 arrivals that landed between 10:58 AM and 11:58 AM EST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Newark arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
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Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 91 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
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Tailodds’ model gives the 91 departures scheduled from Newark 6–9 PM Saturday an average 76% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 37%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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Of 23 departures that took off between 10:35 AM and 11:35 AM EST, 12 left at least 15 minutes late. Newark typically sees 15% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
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Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 67 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
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Tailodds’ model gives the 42 departures scheduled from Newark 9 PM–midnight Saturday an average 65% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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Tailodds’ model gives the 81 departures scheduled from Newark 3–6 PM Saturday an average 70% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 81 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
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Tailodds’ model gives the 65 departures scheduled from Newark noon–3 PM Saturday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 92 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
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Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 13 of the 98 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
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Tailodds’ model gives the 92 departures scheduled from Newark 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 18%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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Tailodds’ model gives the 98 departures scheduled from Newark 6–9 AM Saturday an average 27% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 15%. From the 12:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 14/0116 - 14/0130 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP HAS BEEN CANCELLED.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
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Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 25 of the 34 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (73%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2245 - 14/0400 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER GROUND STOP REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS ENROUTE FACILITIES RECOVER, FLIGHTS WILL BE ALLOWED TO DEPART THROUGH COORDINATION WITH THE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEM COMMAND CENTER.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
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FAA-reported departure delays at Newark (EWR) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 6:49 PM EST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 6:45 PM EST.
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FAA-reported departure delays at Newark (EWR) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 6:25 PM EST, in 4 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 6:24 PM EST.
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FAA-reported departure delays at Newark (EWR) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 6:09 PM EST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 6:07 PM EST.
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FAA-reported departure delays at Newark (EWR) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 6:01 PM EST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 5:58 PM EST.
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FAA-reported departure delays at Newark (EWR) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 5:45 PM EST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 5:44 PM EST.
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FAA-reported departure delays at Newark (EWR) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 5:41 PM EST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 5:28 PM EST.
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Of 27 arrivals that landed between 4:24 PM and 5:24 PM EST, 13 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Newark arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
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FAA-reported departure delays at Newark (EWR) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 5:00 PM EST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 3:55 PM EST.
Older items One row per event, newest activity first; + opens every update on the event. Times are EST.