Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Live · checked FAA national advisories 5 minFAA NAS status <1 minForecast cycle 64 minLightning 1 minWeather observations <1 minFAA surface data 4 minFAA flight data 5 min
What changed: 71% → 82% since the 10:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from Midway 6–9 PM Saturday an average 82% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 11:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
What changed: 56% → 76% since the 8:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 30 departures scheduled from Midway 3–6 PM Saturday an average 76% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 11:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
What changed: 59% → 71% since the 7:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from Midway 6–9 PM Saturday an average 71% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 10:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
What changed: 45% → 59% since the 5:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 20 departures scheduled from Midway noon–3 PM Saturday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 18%. From the 10:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
What changed: 47% → 56% since the 5:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 30 departures scheduled from Midway 3–6 PM Saturday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 8:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
What changed: 42% → 53% since the 5:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 39 departures scheduled from Midway 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 53% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 14%. From the 8:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
What changed: 57% → 59% since the 6:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from Midway 6–9 PM Saturday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 7:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from Midway 6–9 PM Saturday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 30 departures scheduled from Midway 3–6 PM Saturday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 21 departures scheduled from Midway noon–3 PM Saturday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 18%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from Midway 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 13%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from Midway 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 25% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 13%. From the 12:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 25%Horizon 8.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
Tailodds’ model gives the 36 departures scheduled from Midway 6–9 AM Saturday an average 19% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 9%. From the 12:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from Midway 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 13%. From the 10:00 PM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 47%Horizon 10.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 36 departures scheduled from Midway 6–9 AM Saturday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 8%. From the 9:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 12 departures that took off between 8:15 PM and 9:15 PM CST, 12 left at least 15 minutes late. Midway typically sees 37% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
What changed: about 7 → 4 expected cancellations since the 6:00 PM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 4 of the 29 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (15%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 8:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 14/0116 - 14/0130 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP HAS BEEN CANCELLED.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 29 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (23%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2245 - 14/0400 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER GROUND STOP REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS ENROUTE FACILITIES RECOVER, FLIGHTS WILL BE ALLOWED TO DEPART THROUGH COORDINATION WITH THE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEM COMMAND CENTER.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 41 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (21%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from Midway 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 92% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 53%. From the 3:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
What changed: 62% → 85% since the 2:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 37 departures scheduled from Midway 6–9 PM Friday an average 85% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 46%. From the 3:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
The ground stop for flights to Midway (MDW) no longer appears in the FAA’s airport status as of 3:30 PM CST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 2:52 PM CST.
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2053 - 14/0400 DUE TO EXTRAORDINARY CIRCUMSTANCES AND FOR REASONS OF SAFETY. ATTENTION ALL AIRCRAFT OPERATORS, BY ORDER OF THE FEDERAL AVIATION COMMAND CENTER ALL AIRPORTS ARE GROUND STOPPED. ALL DEPARTING TRAFFIC SHOULD REMAIN GROUND STOPPED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. INBOUND INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS WILL BE MANAGED ON A CASE BY CASE BASIS.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.