Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Live · checked FAA national advisories 4 minFAA NAS status 2 minForecast cycle 1 hLightning 2 minWeather observations 4 minFAA surface data 5 minFAA flight data 5 min
Of 25 departures that took off between 10:39 AM and 11:39 AM CST, 16 left at least 15 minutes late. Minneapolis typically sees 18% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 10:39 AM–11:39 AM CSTSample 25 flightsLate 64%Typical 18%
Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesTimeline (4)View MSP
What changed: 43% → 54% since the 9:00 AM CST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 20 departures scheduled from Minneapolis 9 PM–midnight Saturday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 14%. From the 10:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 54%Horizon 10.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
Of 14 departures that took off between 9:54 AM and 10:54 AM CST, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. Minneapolis typically sees 17% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 9:54 AM–10:54 AM CSTSample 14 flightsLate 50%Typical 17%
Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesTimeline (4)View MSP
Of 17 departures that took off between 9:33 AM and 10:33 AM CST, 12 left at least 15 minutes late. Minneapolis typically sees 17% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 9:33 AM–10:33 AM CSTSample 17 flightsLate 71%Typical 17%
Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesTimeline (4)View MSP
Tailodds’ model gives the 20 departures scheduled from Minneapolis 9 PM–midnight Saturday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 14%. From the 9:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 43%Horizon 11.1 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 52% → 56% since the 7:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 96 departures scheduled from Minneapolis 6–9 PM Saturday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 8:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 56%Horizon 9.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 51% → 55% since the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 61 departures scheduled from Minneapolis 3–6 PM Saturday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 8:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 55%Horizon 6.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
Tailodds’ model gives the 96 departures scheduled from Minneapolis 6–9 PM Saturday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 7:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 52%Horizon 9.6 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 53% → 57% since the 6:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 85 departures scheduled from Minneapolis noon–3 PM Saturday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 14%. From the 7:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 20 departures that took off between 7:21 AM and 8:21 AM CST, 9 left at least 15 minutes late. Minneapolis typically sees 10% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 7:21 AM–8:21 AM CSTSample 20 flightsLate 45%Typical 10%
Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesTimeline (4)View MSP
What changed: 55% → 53% since the 5:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 84 departures scheduled from Minneapolis noon–3 PM Saturday an average 53% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 15%. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 61 departures scheduled from Minneapolis 3–6 PM Saturday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 51%Horizon 9.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 84 departures scheduled from Minneapolis noon–3 PM Saturday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 15%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 102 departures scheduled from Minneapolis 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 12%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 101 departures scheduled from Minneapolis 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 11%. From the 12:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 88 departures scheduled from Minneapolis 6–9 AM Saturday an average 25% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 10%. From the 12:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 25%Horizon 5.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
Of 13 arrivals that landed between 11:15 PM and 12:15 AM CST, 13 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 18% of arrivals at Minneapolis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 11:15 PM–12:15 AM CSTSample 13 flightsLate 100%Typical 18%
Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesTimeline (1)View MSP
What changed: 52% → 56% since the 10:00 PM CST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 102 departures scheduled from Minneapolis 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 12%. From the 11:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 56%Horizon 9.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
Tailodds’ model gives the 103 departures scheduled from Minneapolis 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 11%. From the 10:00 PM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 52%Horizon 10.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
Of 13 departures that took off between 8:25 PM and 9:25 PM CST, 13 left at least 15 minutes late. Minneapolis typically sees 20% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Tailodds’ model gives the 85 departures scheduled from Minneapolis 6–9 AM Saturday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 10%. From the 8:00 PM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 44%Horizon 9.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
Of 20 arrivals that landed between 4:18 PM and 5:18 PM CST, 1 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 18% of arrivals at Minneapolis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 28% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Minneapolis 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 81% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 3:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 107 departures scheduled from Minneapolis 6–9 PM Friday an average 79% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 3:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 15 arrivals that landed between 1:59 PM and 2:59 PM CST, 9 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 18% of arrivals at Minneapolis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.