Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Live · checked FAA national advisories 1 minFAA NAS status 1 minForecast cycle 1 hLightning 1 minWeather observations 2 minFAA surface data 5 minFAA flight data 5 min
Of 15 arrivals that landed between 2:32 PM and 3:32 PM EST, 8 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Philadelphia arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View PHL
Of 16 departures that took off between 1:06 PM and 2:06 PM EST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. Philadelphia typically sees 22% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View PHL
▼ about 12 → 9 expected cancellations since the 12:00 PM EST forecast
Loading earlier updates…
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 65 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
▼ about 10 → 6 expected cancellations since the 12:00 PM EST forecast
Loading earlier updates…
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 65 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
▲ 41% → 59% since the 10:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Loading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 22 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 9 PM–midnight Saturday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 22 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Saturday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
▲ about 5 → 18 expected cancellations since the 8:00 AM EST forecast
Loading earlier updates…
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 18 of the 48 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (37%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
▲ 44% → 56% since the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)
Loading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 65 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 6–9 PM Saturday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
▲ 47% → 57% since the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)
Loading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 65 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 3–6 PM Saturday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
▲ 43% → 54% since the 7:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Loading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 48 departures scheduled from Philadelphia noon–3 PM Saturday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
▼ 47% → 34% since the 6:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Loading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 62 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 34% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 14%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
▲ about 5 → 20 expected cancellations since the 11:00 PM EST forecast
Loading earlier updates…
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 20 of the 61 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (33%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
▲ about 7 → 28 expected cancellations since the 12:00 AM EST forecast
Loading earlier updates…
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 28 of the 77 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (36%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Of 13 departures that took off between 9:41 PM and 10:41 PM EST, 13 left at least 15 minutes late. Philadelphia typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View PHL
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 14/0116 - 14/0130 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP HAS BEEN CANCELLED.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2245 - 14/0400 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER GROUND STOP REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS ENROUTE FACILITIES RECOVER, FLIGHTS WILL BE ALLOWED TO DEPART THROUGH COORDINATION WITH THE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEM COMMAND CENTER.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
▲ about 9 → 13 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM EST forecast
Loading earlier updates…
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 13 of the 31 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (41%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
▼ 83% → 72% since the 4:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Loading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 31 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 72% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 6:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
▼ about 25 → 22 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM EST forecast
Loading earlier updates…
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 22 of the 73 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (31%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
▲ 51% → 90% since the 8:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Loading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 74 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 6–9 PM Friday an average 90% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2053 - 14/0400 DUE TO EXTRAORDINARY CIRCUMSTANCES AND FOR REASONS OF SAFETY. ATTENTION ALL AIRCRAFT OPERATORS, BY ORDER OF THE FEDERAL AVIATION COMMAND CENTER ALL AIRPORTS ARE GROUND STOPPED. ALL DEPARTING TRAFFIC SHOULD REMAIN GROUND STOPPED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. INBOUND INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS WILL BE MANAGED ON A CASE BY CASE BASIS.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2030 - 14/0500 THE ATCSCC HAS ACTIVATED THE DIVERSION RECOVERY TOOL FOR ALL AIRPORTS. CUSTOMERS SHOULD ENSURE THAT DVRSN IS INCLUDED IN FLIGHT PLAN REMARKS OF DIVERTED AIRCRAFT. NOTE THAT IF THERE IS A GROUND DELAY PROGRAM OR GROUND STOP IN EFFECT FOR THE DESTINATION AIRPORT DIVERTED FLIGHTS ARE NOT AUTOMATICALLY EXEMPT AND WILL STILL RECEIVE AN EDCT. UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTIFIED, DIVERSION RECOVERY WILL CLOSE AT THE END OF THE EVENT TIME SPECIFIED IN THIS ADVISORY.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
Of 12 departures that took off between 2:17 PM and 3:17 PM EST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. Philadelphia typically sees 25% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 2 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View PHL
Of 18 departures that took off between 1:42 PM and 2:42 PM EST, 4 left at least 15 minutes late. Philadelphia typically sees 25% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 2 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
3 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View PHL
Of 20 departures that took off between 10:48 AM and 11:48 AM EST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. Philadelphia typically sees 21% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View PHL
↑↓ move · → or + expand · ← collapse · Enter open
Older items
One row per event, newest activity first; + opens every update on the event. Times are EST.
Confirmed
An official source (the FAA) reports it. We attribute it; we don’t independently verify it.
Observed
We measured it from FAA flight data: window, sample size and the typical level are on the item.
Forecast
Our model predicts it, with its probability, target, horizon and model version. It has not happened. How accurate is it?