Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Airline analyst: Every MVP detector is airport-wide, so a carrier view would only repeat the airport feed.
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 77 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~6 cancellationsHorizon 9.6 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 5 → 10 expected cancellations since the 12:00 AM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 107 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~10 cancellationsHorizon 6.6 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: about 6 → 13 expected cancellations since the 3:00 AM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 13 of the 104 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~13 cancellationsHorizon 3.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 7 → 11 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 92 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~11 cancellationsHorizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 5 → 10 expected cancellations since the 7:00 PM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 23 departures scheduled midnight–3 AM Saturday to be cancelled (43%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 8:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~10 cancellationsHorizon 3.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 58 → 66 expected cancellations since the 6:00 PM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 66 of the 85 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (78%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 8:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~66 cancellationsHorizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 36 → 57 expected cancellations since the 3:00 PM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 57 of the 82 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (69%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~57 cancellationsHorizon 0.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 41 → 54 expected cancellations since the 1:00 PM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 54 of the 100 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Friday to be cancelled (54%). With calm weather it would expect about 6. From the 2:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~54 cancellationsHorizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 10 → 7 expected cancellations since the 1:00 PM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 121 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Friday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~7 cancellationsHorizon 5.6 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: about 8 → 5 expected cancellations since the 10:00 AM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 107 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Friday to be cancelled (4%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~5 cancellationsHorizon 2.6 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
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