Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 hstaleForecast cycle 83 minLightning 222 hstaleWeather observations no datastaleFAA surface data 7 minFAA flight data 6 min
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Of 31 departures that took off between 11:25 PM and 12:25 AM PST, 20 left at least 15 minutes late. SFO typically sees 27% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 11:25 PM–12:25 AM PSTSample 31 flightsLate 65%Typical 27%
Tailodds’ model gives the 80 departures scheduled from SFO 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 10:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 23 departures that took off between 8:48 PM and 9:48 PM PST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. SFO typically sees 27% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 30 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Tailodds’ model gives the 80 departures scheduled from SFO 6–9 PM Friday an average 67% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
What changed: 53% → 56% since the 5:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 106 departures scheduled from SFO 9 AM–noon Friday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 85 departures scheduled from SFO 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 40%. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 45%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
Of 25 departures that took off between 6:28 PM and 7:28 PM PST, 3 left at least 15 minutes late. SFO typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Tailodds’ model gives the 93 departures scheduled from SFO 3–6 PM Friday an average 74% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 80 departures scheduled from SFO 6–9 PM Thursday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 118 departures scheduled from SFO noon–3 PM Friday an average 74% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 80 departures scheduled from SFO 6–9 PM Thursday an average 37% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 37%Horizon 4.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
Tailodds’ model gives the 91 departures scheduled from SFO 3–6 PM Thursday an average 37% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 41%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 37%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
Tailodds’ model gives the 124 departures scheduled from SFO noon–3 PM Thursday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 41%. From the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 41%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
Of 45 departures that took off between 1:55 PM and 2:55 PM PST, 10 left at least 15 minutes late. SFO typically sees 32% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 2 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Of 25 arrivals that landed between 12:53 PM and 1:53 PM PST, 4 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 31% of arrivals at SFO arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Of 15 departures that took off between 6:04 AM and 7:04 AM PST, 1 left at least 15 minutes late. SFO typically sees 6% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 16% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 6:04 AM–7:04 AM PSTSample 15 flightsLate 7%Typical 6%
Of 24 arrivals that landed between 11:01 PM and 12:01 AM PST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 31% of arrivals at SFO arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 11:01 PM–12:01 AM PSTSample 24 flightsLate 25%Typical 31%
Tailodds’ model gives the 84 departures scheduled from SFO 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 8:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
What changed: 46% → 56% since the 10:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 78 departures scheduled from SFO 6–9 PM Monday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 2:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
What changed: 56% → 51% since the 12:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 95 departures scheduled from SFO 3–6 PM Monday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 17 departures that took off between 6:05 AM and 7:05 AM PST, 2 left at least 15 minutes late. SFO typically sees 6% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 16% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 6:05 AM–7:05 AM PSTSample 17 flightsLate 12%Typical 6%
Of 33 departures that took off between 6:36 PM and 7:36 PM PST, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. SFO typically sees 25% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Tailodds’ model gives the 105 departures scheduled from SFO 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 24% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 3:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 17 departures that took off between 6:01 AM and 7:01 AM PST, 1 left at least 15 minutes late. SFO typically sees 6% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 16% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 6:01 AM–7:01 AM PSTSample 17 flightsLate 6%Typical 6%
Of 31 departures that took off between 6:28 PM and 7:28 PM PST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. SFO typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
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