Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Airline analyst: Every MVP detector is airport-wide, so a carrier view would only repeat the airport feed.
Tailodds’ model gives the 42 departures scheduled from Orange County noon–3 PM Friday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 46%Horizon 11.5 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from Orange County 6–9 PM Friday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 48%Horizon 22.1 hModel famA-fc-v3
Of 12 departures that took off between 6:40 PM and 7:40 PM PST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. Orange County typically sees 25% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 6:40 PM–7:40 PM PSTSample 12 flightsLate 50%Typical 25%
Tailodds’ model gives the 24 departures scheduled from Orange County 3–6 PM Friday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 51%Horizon 21.5 hModel famA-fc-v3
Of 13 departures that took off between 1:17 PM and 2:17 PM PST, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. Orange County typically sees 26% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 1:17 PM–2:17 PM PSTSample 13 flightsLate 54%Typical 26%
Tailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from Orange County 6–9 PM Monday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 12:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 42%Horizon 5.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Orange County 3–6 PM Monday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 12:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 45%Horizon 2.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Of 13 departures that took off between 12:14 PM and 1:14 PM PST, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. Orange County typically sees 23% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 12 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 12:14 PM–1:14 PM PSTSample 13 flightsLate 54%Typical 23%
Tailodds’ model gives the 45 departures scheduled from Orange County 6–9 PM Friday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 2:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 55%Horizon 3.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 27 departures scheduled from Orange County 6–9 PM Tuesday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 3:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 45%Horizon 2.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 41 departures scheduled from Orange County 6–9 PM Monday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 46%Horizon 4.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 38 departures scheduled from Orange County 3–6 PM Monday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 9:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 48%Horizon 5.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 55 departures scheduled from Orange County noon–3 PM Monday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 9:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 48%Horizon 2.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 62% at worst → 19% now
Of 16 arrivals that landed between 9:40 PM and 10:40 PM PST, 3 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 18% of arrivals at Orange County arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 28% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 9:40 PM–10:40 PM PSTSample 16 flightsLate 19%Typical 18%
Of 15 departures that took off between 8:19 PM and 9:19 PM PST, 12 left at least 15 minutes late. Orange County typically sees 29% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 8:19 PM–9:19 PM PSTSample 15 flightsLate 80%Typical 29%
What changed: late share 87% → 58%
Of 12 departures that took off between 6:14 PM and 7:14 PM PDT, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. Orange County typically sees 28% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 6:14 PM–7:14 PM PDTSample 12 flightsLate 58%Typical 28%
Of 14 arrivals that landed between 6:04 PM and 7:04 PM PDT, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 18% of arrivals at Orange County arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 6:04 PM–7:04 PM PDTSample 14 flightsLate 50%Typical 18%
What changed: 63% → 57% since the 2:00 PM PDT forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from Orange County 6–9 PM Friday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 4:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 57%Horizon 1.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 54% → 61% since the 11:00 AM PDT forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Orange County 3–6 PM Friday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 2:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 61%Horizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Of 13 arrivals that landed between 8:02 PM and 9:02 PM PDT, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 18% of arrivals at Orange County arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 8:02 PM–9:02 PM PDTSample 13 flightsLate 46%Typical 18%
What changed: 52% → 67% since the 12:00 PM PDT forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from Orange County 6–9 PM Thursday an average 67% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 4:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 67%Horizon 1.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 44% → 40%; calm-weather level 34%
Tailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from Orange County 6–9 PM Thursday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 6:00 AM PDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 40%Horizon 10.5 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: 45% → 39%; calm-weather level 33%
Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from Orange County 3–6 PM Thursday an average 39% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 6:00 AM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 39%Horizon 7.5 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
Of 14 arrivals that landed between 5:59 PM and 6:59 PM PDT, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 18% of arrivals at Orange County arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 5:59 PM–6:59 PM PDTSample 14 flightsLate 50%Typical 18%
Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Orange County 6–9 PM Monday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 2:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 42%Horizon 3.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
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