Tailodds’ model gives the 35 departures scheduled from St Louis noon–3 PM Friday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
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St Louis arrivals running late: 50% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour
50% lateOf 16 arrivals that landed between 6:58 PM and 7:58 PM CST, 8 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at St Louis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
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Tailodds’ model gives the 15 departures scheduled from St Louis 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 66% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 48%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 30 departures scheduled from St Louis 6–9 PM Thursday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 43%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from St Louis 3–6 PM Thursday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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St Louis arrivals running late: 43% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour
43% lateOf 21 arrivals that landed between 8:46 PM and 9:46 PM CST, 9 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at St Louis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
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St Louis departure delays ease: 35% late in the last hour, still above normal
▼ late share 62% → 35%Loading earlier updates…
Of 17 departures that took off between 7:34 PM and 8:34 PM CST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. St Louis typically sees 39% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
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Model raises St Louis departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 67%
▲ 53% → 67% since the 1:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)Loading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 15 departures scheduled from St Louis 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 67% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 7:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from St Louis 6–9 PM Monday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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St Louis arrivals running late: 43% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour
43% lateOf 14 arrivals that landed between 9:42 PM and 10:42 PM CST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at St Louis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
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St Louis departure delays worsen: 85% late in the last hour
▲ late share 67% → 85%Loading earlier updates…
Of 13 departures that took off between 8:21 PM and 9:21 PM CST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. St Louis typically sees 39% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
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Model raises St Louis departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Sunday to 78%
▲ 69% → 78% since the 6:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)Loading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 15 departures scheduled from St Louis 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 78% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 51%. From the 7:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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St Louis arrival delays ease: 42% late in the last hour, still above normal
▼ late share 67% → 42%Loading earlier updates…
Of 12 arrivals that landed between 10:55 PM and 11:55 PM CST, 5 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at St Louis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
3 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
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Model raises St Louis departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 83%
▲ 79% → 83% since the 6:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)Loading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from St Louis 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 83% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 55%. From the 7:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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Model raises St Louis departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 75%
▲ 72% → 75% since the 4:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)Loading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 57 departures scheduled from St Louis 6–9 PM Friday an average 75% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 47%. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 12 departures that took off between 1:30 PM and 2:30 PM CST, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. St Louis typically sees 29% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 2 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
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Model raises St Louis departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 57%
▲ 47% → 57% since the 6:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)Loading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 54 departures scheduled from St Louis 3–6 PM Friday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 37%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 49 departures scheduled from St Louis noon–3 PM Friday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 7:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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St Louis arrivals running late: 46% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour
46% lateOf 13 arrivals that landed between 7:51 PM and 8:51 PM CST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at St Louis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
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Tailodds’ model gives the 27 departures scheduled from St Louis 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 64% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 49%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 12 departures that took off between 10:45 AM and 11:45 AM CST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. St Louis typically sees 21% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
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Model lowers St Louis departure delay risk noon–3 PM Thursday to 28%, near normal
40% → 28%; calm-weather level 26%Loading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 49 departures scheduled from St Louis noon–3 PM Thursday an average 28% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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St Louis arrivals running late: 54% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour
54% lateOf 13 arrivals that landed between 7:17 PM and 8:17 PM CST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at St Louis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
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Model now puts St Louis departure delay risk 3–6 PM Tuesday at 45%, close to its calm-weather level of 38%
41% → 45%; calm-weather level 38%Loading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 44 departures scheduled from St Louis 3–6 PM Tuesday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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Model lowers St Louis departure delay risk 6–9 PM Tuesday to 47%, near normal
50% → 47%; calm-weather level 39%Loading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 61 departures scheduled from St Louis 6–9 PM Tuesday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 12:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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- An official source (the FAA) reports it. We attribute it; we don’t independently verify it.
- Observed
- We measured it from FAA flight data: window, sample size and the typical level are on the item.
- Forecast
- Our model predicts it, with its probability, target, horizon and model version. It has not happened. How accurate is it?