Tailodds’ model gives the 52 departures scheduled from Tampa 3–6 PM Friday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
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Tailodds’ model gives the 55 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 3–6 PM Friday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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Model forecasts 44% delay risk for Fort Lauderdale departures noon–3 PM Friday
44% riskTailodds’ model gives the 63 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale noon–3 PM Friday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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Model forecasts 40% delay risk for Fort Lauderdale departures 9 AM–noon Friday
40% riskTailodds’ model gives the 73 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 9 AM–noon Friday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 36 departures scheduled from Salt Lake City noon–3 PM Friday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 2:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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Model lowers LaGuardia departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 55%
▼ 55% → 55% since the 3:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)Loading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 105 departures scheduled from LaGuardia 6–9 PM Friday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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Model raises LaGuardia departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 56%
▲ 53% → 56% since the 2:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)Loading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 106 departures scheduled from LaGuardia 3–6 PM Friday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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Model lowers LaGuardia departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Friday to 32%, near normal
39% → 32%; calm-weather level 14%Loading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 113 departures scheduled from LaGuardia 9 AM–noon Friday an average 32% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 14%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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LAX departures back near normal: 27% late in the last hour
late share 49% at worst → 27% nowLoading earlier updates…
Of 15 departures that took off between 12:16 AM and 1:16 AM PST, 4 left at least 15 minutes late. LAX typically sees 18% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 12 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 28% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
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Tailodds’ model gives the 34 departures scheduled from New Orleans noon–3 PM Friday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 2:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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Model lowers Boston departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 35%
▼ 47% → 35% since the 2:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)Loading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 77 departures scheduled from Boston noon–3 PM Friday an average 35% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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Model lowers Boston departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Friday to 29%, near normal
44% → 29%; calm-weather level 14%Loading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 118 departures scheduled from Boston 9 AM–noon Friday an average 29% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 14%. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 16 arrivals that landed between 11:47 PM and 12:47 AM PST, 10 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at LAX arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
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Las Vegas arrivals running late: 50% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour
50% lateOf 14 arrivals that landed between 11:33 PM and 12:33 AM PST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at Las Vegas arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
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Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from San Jose noon–3 PM Friday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 42 departures scheduled from Orange County noon–3 PM Friday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from Sacramento noon–3 PM Friday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 46 departures scheduled from Midway noon–3 PM Friday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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Model lowers Newark departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 61%
▼ 70% → 61% since the 7:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)Loading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 113 departures scheduled from Newark 6–9 PM Friday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 40%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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Model lowers Boston departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 38%
▼ 50% → 38% since the 7:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)Loading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 104 departures scheduled from Boston 6–9 PM Friday an average 38% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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Updated model puts Boston departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday at 38%
▼ 50% → 38% since the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model changed)Loading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 96 departures scheduled from Boston 3–6 PM Friday an average 38% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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Model lowers JFK departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Friday to 37%
▼ 49% → 37% since the 12:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)Loading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 104 departures scheduled from JFK 9 AM–noon Friday an average 37% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 16%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 62 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 6–9 PM Friday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 40%. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 103 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 3–6 PM Friday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 114 departures scheduled from Las Vegas noon–3 PM Friday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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- Confirmed
- An official source (the FAA) reports it. We attribute it; we don’t independently verify it.
- Observed
- We measured it from FAA flight data: window, sample size and the typical level are on the item.
- Forecast
- Our model predicts it, with its probability, target, horizon and model version. It has not happened. How accurate is it?