tailodds FORECAST
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Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:46 am at Washington); 22 already left
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 34 nonstops

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 43%, against 30% on a calm day. Safest: UA 1997 at 22:27, 31%.

Safest bet today UA 1997 IAD 22:27 → EWR 23:57 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest UA 1831 IAD 17:42 → EWR 19:10 · 69% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time
Weather 43% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 30% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 22 flights that already left today are not shown.
UA 1997 United Flight history → IAD 22:27 EWR 23:57 31% 11% 0.7% 78%
UA 3698 United flown by Republic Flight history → IAD 12:40 LGA 14:10 31% 11% 1.0% 68%
YX 5809 Republic IAD 12:18 JFK 13:42 33% 7% 0.7% no record
DL 5835 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → IAD 12:29 JFK 13:55 33% 8% 1.0% 42%
UA 3682 United flown by Republic Flight history → IAD 22:05 LGA 23:30 35% 10% 1.3% 58%
AA 4719 American flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 22:38 LGA 00:03 35% 15% 1.3% 67%
AA 4660 American flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 22:14 LGA 23:44 35% 18% 1.4% 70%
AA 4522 American flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 12:59 JFK 14:22 39% 8% 0.8% 72%worse than usual
AA 4730 American flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 13:59 LGA 15:31 39% 14% 0.9% 62%
UA 1498 United Flight history → IAD 12:35 EWR 14:01 40% 14% 0.8% 69%
DL 5747 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 13:30 LGA 14:53 42% 12% 0.8% 67%
AA 4773 American flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 15:06 LGA 16:40 43% 17% 1.2% 64%
DL 5713 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 17:00 JFK 18:39 43% 19% 1.3% 67%
AA 4702 American flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 18:10 LGA 19:40 43% 23% 1.4% 51%
YX 4569 Republic DCA 15:15 LGA 16:47 44% 14% 1.1% no record
UA 3916 United IAD 23:34 EWR 01:05 45% 16% 2.7% no record
YX 4636 Republic DCA 17:24 LGA 18:59 45% 16% 1.2% no record
YX 4583 Republic DCA 18:45 LGA 20:22 45% 18% 1.3% no record
AA 4336 American flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 19:25 JFK 21:01 46% 22% 1.8% 76%worse than usual
AA 4629 American flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 18:23 JFK 19:47 46% 20% 1.4% 71%worse than usual
AA 4781 American flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 14:54 JFK 16:29 47% 20% 1.2% 62%
YX 5853 Republic DCA 17:03 JFK 18:27 47% 18% 1.3% no record
YX 5779 Republic IAD 18:21 JFK 19:46 47% 23% 1.3% no record
DL 5763 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 17:40 LGA 18:59 50% 23% 1.3% 51%
DL 5768 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 20:40 LGA 21:59 53% 28% 2.1% 54%
DL 5752 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 19:40 LGA 21:04 53% 30% 2.2% 48%
UA 1831 United Flight history → IAD 17:42 EWR 19:10 69% 35% 0.6% 59%worse than usual
UA 4077 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record IAD 17:15 LGA 18:42 23% 13% 13.9% 77%
UA 4442 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record DCA 13:00 EWR 14:22 33% 18% 4.6% 67%
DL 5076 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record IAD 19:14 JFK 21:00 36% 22% 12.7% 64%
UA 4560 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record DCA 15:10 EWR 16:30 36% 21% 8.3% 64%
UA 4180 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record DCA 17:55 EWR 19:28 43% 24% 11.4% 57%
UA 4401 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record DCA 16:30 EWR 18:03 44% 23% 5.4% 56%
UA 4174 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record DCA 20:25 EWR 21:58 47% 28% 11.8% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON