Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Live · checked FAA national advisories 5 minFAA NAS status 2 minForecast cycle 73 minLightning 2 minWeather observations 4 minFAA surface data 6 minFAA flight data 6 min
▲ about 18 → 22 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM EST forecast
Loading earlier updates…
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 22 of the 178 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Tailodds’ model gives the 259 departures scheduled from Atlanta 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 14%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 17 of the 203 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
▲ about 17 → 26 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast
Loading earlier updates…
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 26 of the 259 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
▲ about 10 → 16 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast
Loading earlier updates…
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 16 of the 140 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Tailodds’ model gives the 203 departures scheduled from Atlanta 3–6 PM Saturday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
▲ 32% → 48% since the 2:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Loading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 178 departures scheduled from Atlanta noon–3 PM Saturday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 260 departures scheduled from Atlanta 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 29% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 14%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 140 departures scheduled from Atlanta 6–9 AM Saturday an average 21% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 10%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 19 departures scheduled midnight–3 AM Saturday to be cancelled (39%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 11:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
▲ 58% → 78% since the 10:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Loading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 19 departures scheduled from Atlanta midnight–3 AM Saturday an average 78% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 14%. From the 11:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 15 arrivals that landed between 9:31 PM and 10:31 PM EST, 15 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 17% of arrivals at Atlanta arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View ATL
Of 17 departures that took off between 9:15 PM and 10:15 PM EST, 16 left at least 15 minutes late. Atlanta typically sees 25% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View ATL
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 14/0116 - 14/0130 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP HAS BEEN CANCELLED.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
FAA-reported departure delays at Atlanta (ATL) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 8:25 PM EST, in 4 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 7:46 PM EST.
▲ about 31 → 47 expected cancellations since the 6:00 PM EST forecast
Loading earlier updates…
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 47 of the 137 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (35%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2245 - 14/0400 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER GROUND STOP REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS ENROUTE FACILITIES RECOVER, FLIGHTS WILL BE ALLOWED TO DEPART THROUGH COORDINATION WITH THE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEM COMMAND CENTER.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
▲ 82% → 94% since the 4:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Loading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 143 departures scheduled from Atlanta 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 94% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 6:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
FAA-reported departure delays at Atlanta (ATL) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 6:05 PM EST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 6:04 PM EST.
▲ about 19 → 22 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM EST forecast
Loading earlier updates…
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 22 of the 208 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
FAA-reported departure delays at Atlanta (ATL) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 5:41 PM EST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 5:32 PM EST.
FAA-reported departure delays at Atlanta (ATL) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 5:15 PM EST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 5:05 PM EST.
FAA-reported departure delays at Atlanta (ATL) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 5:00 PM EST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 4:49 PM EST.
▲ 53% → 84% since the 3:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Loading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 212 departures scheduled from Atlanta 6–9 PM Friday an average 84% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2053 - 14/0400 DUE TO EXTRAORDINARY CIRCUMSTANCES AND FOR REASONS OF SAFETY. ATTENTION ALL AIRCRAFT OPERATORS, BY ORDER OF THE FEDERAL AVIATION COMMAND CENTER ALL AIRPORTS ARE GROUND STOPPED. ALL DEPARTING TRAFFIC SHOULD REMAIN GROUND STOPPED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. INBOUND INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS WILL BE MANAGED ON A CASE BY CASE BASIS.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.