Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 68 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (14%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 12:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
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Updated model now expects about 27 among National departures 9 AM–noon Saturday
▲ about 25 → 27 expected cancellations since the 11:00 PM EST forecastLoading earlier updates…
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 27 of the 61 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (45%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 12:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Model raises expected cancellations to about 25 among National departures 9 AM–noon Saturday
▲ about 19 → 25 expected cancellations since the 10:00 PM EST forecastLoading earlier updates…
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 25 of the 61 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (42%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 11:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
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Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 19 of the 61 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (31%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Model raises expected cancellations to about 38 among National departures 6–9 AM Saturday
▲ about 10 → 38 expected cancellations since the 9:00 PM EST forecastLoading earlier updates…
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 38 of the 84 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (45%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Updated model now expects about 10 among National departures 6–9 AM Saturday
▲ about 7 → 10 expected cancellations since the 7:00 PM EST forecastLoading earlier updates…
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 84 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 9:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 14/0116 - 14/0130 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP HAS BEEN CANCELLED.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
1 update · Source: FAA ATCSCC advisory ↗
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Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 85 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2245 - 14/0400 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER GROUND STOP REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS ENROUTE FACILITIES RECOVER, FLIGHTS WILL BE ALLOWED TO DEPART THROUGH COORDINATION WITH THE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEM COMMAND CENTER.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
1 update · Source: FAA ATCSCC advisory ↗
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Model raises expected cancellations to about 10 among National departures 9 PM–midnight Friday
▲ about 7 → 10 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM EST forecastLoading earlier updates…
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 29 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (36%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Model lowers National departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 68%
▼ 82% → 68% since the 4:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)Loading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from National 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 68% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 6:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 29 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (24%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 24 of the 79 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (31%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Model raises National departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 82%
▲ 46% → 82% since the 2:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)Loading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from National 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 82% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Model raises National departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 87%
▲ 54% → 87% since the 3:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)Loading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 79 departures scheduled from National 6–9 PM Friday an average 87% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2053 - 14/0400 DUE TO EXTRAORDINARY CIRCUMSTANCES AND FOR REASONS OF SAFETY. ATTENTION ALL AIRCRAFT OPERATORS, BY ORDER OF THE FEDERAL AVIATION COMMAND CENTER ALL AIRPORTS ARE GROUND STOPPED. ALL DEPARTING TRAFFIC SHOULD REMAIN GROUND STOPPED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. INBOUND INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS WILL BE MANAGED ON A CASE BY CASE BASIS.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
1 update · Source: FAA ATCSCC advisory ↗
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The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2030 - 14/0500 THE ATCSCC HAS ACTIVATED THE DIVERSION RECOVERY TOOL FOR ALL AIRPORTS. CUSTOMERS SHOULD ENSURE THAT DVRSN IS INCLUDED IN FLIGHT PLAN REMARKS OF DIVERTED AIRCRAFT. NOTE THAT IF THERE IS A GROUND DELAY PROGRAM OR GROUND STOP IN EFFECT FOR THE DESTINATION AIRPORT DIVERTED FLIGHTS ARE NOT AUTOMATICALLY EXEMPT AND WILL STILL RECEIVE AN EDCT. UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTIFIED, DIVERSION RECOVERY WILL CLOSE AT THE END OF THE EVENT TIME SPECIFIED IN THIS ADVISORY.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
1 update · Source: FAA ATCSCC advisory ↗
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Model lowers National departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 54%
▼ 55% → 54% since the 2:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)Loading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 79 departures scheduled from National 6–9 PM Friday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 3:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from National 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Model raises National departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 55%
▲ 43% → 55% since the 9:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)Loading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 79 departures scheduled from National 6–9 PM Friday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
National: 9 of 31 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn
Tight turns 9 of 31Of the 42 departures scheduled from National (DCA) between 9:56 AM and 11:26 AM EST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 31. For 9 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into DCA is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules
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Tailodds’ model gives the 79 departures scheduled from National 6–9 PM Friday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 9:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 28 arrivals that landed between 8:55 PM and 9:55 PM EST, 15 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 28% of arrivals at National arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
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Of 21 departures that took off between 6:05 PM and 7:05 PM EST, 14 left at least 15 minutes late. National typically sees 40% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
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National arrivals back near normal: 14% late in the last hour
late share 54% at worst → 14% nowLoading earlier updates…
Of 21 arrivals that landed between 5:53 PM and 6:53 PM EST, 3 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 28% of arrivals at National arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
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Older items Every published update, newest first. Times are EST.
- Confirmed
- An official source (the FAA) reports it. We attribute it; we don’t independently verify it.
- Observed
- We measured it from FAA flight data: window, sample size and the typical level are on the item.
- Forecast
- Our model predicts it, with its probability, target, horizon and model version. It has not happened. How accurate is it?