Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Airline analyst: Every MVP detector is airport-wide, so a carrier view would only repeat the airport feed.
Of 33 departures that took off between 9:02 AM and 10:02 AM PST, 14 left at least 15 minutes late. Las Vegas typically sees 16% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 9:02 AM–10:02 AM PSTSample 33 flightsLate 42%Typical 16%
What changed: 58% → 64% since the 5:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 101 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 3–6 PM Sunday an average 64% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 37%. From the 9:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 64%Horizon 5.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 72 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 6–9 PM Sunday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 7:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 55%Horizon 10.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 56% → 53% since the 6:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 115 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 53% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 7:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 53%Horizon 1.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 50% → 58% since the 3:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 109 departures scheduled from Las Vegas noon–3 PM Sunday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 5:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 58%Horizon 5.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 54% → 41% since the 6:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 17 departures scheduled from Las Vegas midnight–3 AM Sunday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 18%. From the 10:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 41%Horizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 55% → 67%
Of 21 arrivals that landed between 8:40 PM and 9:40 PM PST, 14 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at Las Vegas arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 8:40 PM–9:40 PM PSTSample 21 flightsLate 67%Typical 21%
What changed: 78% → 65% since the 5:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 27 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 PM–midnight Saturday an average 65% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 8:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 65%Horizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 76% → 88% since the 9:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 92 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 3–6 PM Saturday an average 88% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 88%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 56% → 65%
Of 23 departures that took off between 12:52 PM and 1:52 PM PST, 15 left at least 15 minutes late. Las Vegas typically sees 26% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 12:52 PM–1:52 PM PSTSample 23 flightsLate 65%Typical 26%
What changed: 56% → 71% since the 8:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 20 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 6–9 PM Saturday an average 71% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 11:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 71%Horizon 5.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 55% → 68% since the 5:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 98 departures scheduled from Las Vegas noon–3 PM Saturday an average 68% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 8:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 68%Horizon 3.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 51% → 58% since the 11:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 99 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 8:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 58%Horizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Of 12 arrivals that landed between 8:28 PM and 9:28 PM PST, 11 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at Las Vegas arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 8:28 PM–9:28 PM PSTSample 12 flightsLate 92%Typical 21%
Of 19 departures that took off between 6:21 PM and 7:21 PM PST, 19 left at least 15 minutes late. Las Vegas typically sees 39% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 6:21 PM–7:21 PM PSTSample 19 flightsLate 100%Typical 39%
Tailodds’ model gives the 20 departures scheduled from Las Vegas midnight–3 AM Saturday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 6:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 49%Horizon 5.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 59% → 84% since the 3:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 61 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 84% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 52%. From the 6:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 84%Horizon 2.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 81% → 81% since the 1:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 59 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 6–9 PM Friday an average 81% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 59%. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 81%Horizon 0.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: departure delays no longer listed
FAA-reported departure delays at Las Vegas (LAS) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 2:00 PM PST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 12:52 PM PST.
What changed: 57% → 85% since the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 103 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 3–6 PM Friday an average 85% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 41%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 85%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: late share 43% at worst → 26% now
Of 23 departures that took off between 11:27 AM and 12:27 PM PST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. Las Vegas typically sees 22% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 11:27 AM–12:27 PM PSTSample 23 flightsLate 26%Typical 22%
What changed: 50% → 44%; calm-weather level 42%
Tailodds’ model gives the 114 departures scheduled from Las Vegas noon–3 PM Friday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 42%. From the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 44%Horizon 1.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: late share 58% at worst → 0% now
Of 25 arrivals that landed between 6:04 AM and 7:04 AM PST, 0 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at Las Vegas arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 6:04 AM–7:04 AM PSTSample 25 flightsLate 0%Typical 21%
What changed: 42% → 31%; calm-weather level 21%
Tailodds’ model gives the 107 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 AM–noon Friday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 3:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 31%Horizon 5.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 58% → 55%; calm-weather level 49%
Tailodds’ model gives the 58 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 49%. From the 8:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 55%Horizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
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