Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
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Of 13 arrivals that landed between 10:22 PM and 11:22 PM CST, 12 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at O'Hare arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View ORD
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 19 of the 238 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 PM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Tailodds’ model gives the 238 departures scheduled from O'Hare 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 10:00 PM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 15 departures scheduled from O'Hare 3–6 AM Saturday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 14%. From the 10:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
▲ 41% → 59% since the 8:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)
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Tailodds’ model gives the 19 departures scheduled from O'Hare midnight–3 AM Saturday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 10:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
▲ about 22 → 25 expected cancellations since the 8:00 PM CST forecast
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Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 25 of the 231 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 9:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Of 20 departures that took off between 8:31 PM and 9:31 PM CST, 19 left at least 15 minutes late. O'Hare typically sees 34% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View ORD
Tailodds’ model gives the 231 departures scheduled from O'Hare 6–9 AM Saturday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 16%. From the 8:00 PM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
▲ about 43 → 50 expected cancellations since the 6:00 PM CST forecast
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Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 50 of the 138 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (36%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
FAA-reported departure delays at O'Hare (ORD) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 8:10 PM CST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 8:07 PM CST.
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 14/0116 - 14/0130 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP HAS BEEN CANCELLED.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
FAA-reported departure delays at O'Hare (ORD) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 7:25 PM CST, in 4 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 7:10 PM CST.
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2245 - 14/0400 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER GROUND STOP REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS ENROUTE FACILITIES RECOVER, FLIGHTS WILL BE ALLOWED TO DEPART THROUGH COORDINATION WITH THE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEM COMMAND CENTER.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
▲ about 40 → 59 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM CST forecast
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Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 59 of the 233 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (25%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
FAA-reported departure delays at O'Hare (ORD) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 5:25 PM CST, in 4 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 5:12 PM CST.
Of 27 arrivals that landed between 3:59 PM and 4:59 PM CST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at O'Hare arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View ORD
FAA-reported departure delays at O'Hare (ORD) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 4:45 PM CST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 4:44 PM CST.
FAA-reported departure delays at O'Hare (ORD) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 4:41 PM CST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 4:32 PM CST.
FAA-reported departure delays at O'Hare (ORD) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 4:00 PM CST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 2:54 PM CST.
Tailodds’ model gives the 139 departures scheduled from O'Hare 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 78% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 3:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 235 departures scheduled from O'Hare 6–9 PM Friday an average 83% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 43%. From the 3:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
The ground stop for flights to O'Hare (ORD) no longer appears in the FAA’s airport status as of 3:30 PM CST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 2:52 PM CST.
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2053 - 14/0400 DUE TO EXTRAORDINARY CIRCUMSTANCES AND FOR REASONS OF SAFETY. ATTENTION ALL AIRCRAFT OPERATORS, BY ORDER OF THE FEDERAL AVIATION COMMAND CENTER ALL AIRPORTS ARE GROUND STOPPED. ALL DEPARTING TRAFFIC SHOULD REMAIN GROUND STOPPED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. INBOUND INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS WILL BE MANAGED ON A CASE BY CASE BASIS.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2030 - 14/0500 THE ATCSCC HAS ACTIVATED THE DIVERSION RECOVERY TOOL FOR ALL AIRPORTS. CUSTOMERS SHOULD ENSURE THAT DVRSN IS INCLUDED IN FLIGHT PLAN REMARKS OF DIVERTED AIRCRAFT. NOTE THAT IF THERE IS A GROUND DELAY PROGRAM OR GROUND STOP IN EFFECT FOR THE DESTINATION AIRPORT DIVERTED FLIGHTS ARE NOT AUTOMATICALLY EXEMPT AND WILL STILL RECEIVE AN EDCT. UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTIFIED, DIVERSION RECOVERY WILL CLOSE AT THE END OF THE EVENT TIME SPECIFIED IN THIS ADVISORY.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
Of 20 departures that took off between 5:46 AM and 6:46 AM CST, 1 left at least 15 minutes late. O'Hare typically sees 11% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 21% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
3 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View ORD
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An official source (the FAA) reports it. We attribute it; we don’t independently verify it.
Observed
We measured it from FAA flight data: window, sample size and the typical level are on the item.
Forecast
Our model predicts it, with its probability, target, horizon and model version. It has not happened. How accurate is it?