Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Airline analyst: Every MVP detector is airport-wide, so a carrier view would only repeat the airport feed.
Of 17 departures that took off between 11:15 AM and 12:15 PM EST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. Philadelphia typically sees 21% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 11:15 AM–12:15 PM ESTSample 17 flightsLate 65%Typical 21%
What changed: late share 44% at worst → 25% now
Of 20 departures that took off between 10:48 AM and 11:48 AM EST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. Philadelphia typically sees 21% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 10:48 AM–11:48 AM ESTSample 20 flightsLate 25%Typical 21%
What changed: 51% → 41% since the 5:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 58 departures scheduled from Philadelphia noon–3 PM Friday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 41%Horizon 1.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 56% → 51% since the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 74 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 6–9 PM Friday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 51%Horizon 8.6 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: 57% → 54% since the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 64 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 3–6 PM Friday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 54%Horizon 6.6 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: late share 83% → 47%
Of 15 arrivals that landed between 10:45 PM and 11:45 PM EST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Philadelphia arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 10:45 PM–11:45 PM ESTSample 15 flightsLate 47%Typical 22%
Tailodds’ model gives the 31 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 9:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 42%Horizon 23.0 hModel famA-fc-v3
What changed: 57% → 70% since the 4:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 31 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 70% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 70%Horizon 0.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Of 15 departures that took off between 5:34 PM and 6:34 PM EST, 15 left at least 15 minutes late. Philadelphia typically sees 30% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 5:34 PM–6:34 PM ESTSample 15 flightsLate 100%Typical 30%
What changed: 58% → 70% since the 3:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 82 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 6–9 PM Thursday an average 70% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 70%Horizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 62 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 3–6 PM Thursday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 50%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 47% → 35%; calm-weather level 28%
Tailodds’ model gives the 76 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 6–9 PM Thursday an average 35% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 35%Horizon 9.5 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: 40% → 31%; calm-weather level 23%
Tailodds’ model gives the 63 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 3–6 PM Thursday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 31%Horizon 9.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: late share 56% at worst → 10% now
Of 21 departures that took off between 1:17 PM and 2:17 PM EST, 2 left at least 15 minutes late. Philadelphia typically sees 22% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 1:17 PM–2:17 PM ESTSample 21 flightsLate 10%Typical 22%
What changed: late share 50% at worst → 20% now
Of 15 arrivals that landed between 10:56 PM and 11:56 PM EST, 3 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Philadelphia arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 10:56 PM–11:56 PM ESTSample 15 flightsLate 20%Typical 22%
What changed: 41% → 35%; calm-weather level 31%
Tailodds’ model gives the 24 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 9 PM–midnight Saturday an average 35% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 35%Horizon 4.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: 41% → 28%; calm-weather level 23%
Tailodds’ model gives the 88 departures scheduled from Philadelphia noon–3 PM Saturday an average 28% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 28%Horizon 6.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 80% → 50%
Of 16 arrivals that landed between 11:14 PM and 12:14 AM EST, 8 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Philadelphia arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 11:14 PM–12:14 AM ESTSample 16 flightsLate 50%Typical 22%
What changed: late share 48% → 71%
Of 14 departures that took off between 9:48 PM and 10:48 PM EST, 10 left at least 15 minutes late. Philadelphia typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 9:48 PM–10:48 PM ESTSample 14 flightsLate 71%Typical 24%
What changed: 67% → 63% since the 12:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 133 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 6–9 PM Friday an average 63% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 63%Horizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 51% → 56% since the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 57 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 56%Horizon 4.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: 54% → 55% since the 10:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 100 departures scheduled from Philadelphia noon–3 PM Friday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 55%Horizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 54 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 45%Horizon 17.6 hModel famA-fc-v3
Tailodds’ model gives the 142 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 6–9 PM Thursday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 8:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 44%Horizon 20.5 hModel famA-fc-v3
What changed: late share 50% at worst → 8% now
Of 26 arrivals that landed between 7:14 PM and 8:14 PM EST, 2 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Philadelphia arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 7:14 PM–8:14 PM ESTSample 26 flightsLate 8%Typical 22%
Older items Each item is the latest update matching your filters; the event’s current status is on its chip. All updates shows the full chronological wire.