Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
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Of 19 departures that took off between 12:05 PM and 1:05 PM MST, 13 left at least 15 minutes late. Phoenix typically sees 22% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 12 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View PHX
Of 18 arrivals that landed between 10:10 AM and 11:10 AM MST, 8 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 20% of arrivals at Phoenix arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View PHX
▲ 50% → 59% since the 8:00 AM MST forecast (same model, same window)
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Tailodds’ model gives the 53 departures scheduled from Phoenix 6–9 PM Saturday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 10:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
▲ 56% → 66% since the 5:00 AM MST forecast (same model, same window)
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Tailodds’ model gives the 125 departures scheduled from Phoenix 3–6 PM Saturday an average 66% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 9:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
▲ 51% → 63% since the 6:00 AM MST forecast (same model, same window)
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Tailodds’ model gives the 102 departures scheduled from Phoenix noon–3 PM Saturday an average 63% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 9:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 23 departures that took off between 8:44 AM and 9:44 AM MST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. Phoenix typically sees 16% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View PHX
Tailodds’ model gives the 53 departures scheduled from Phoenix 6–9 PM Saturday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 8:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
▼ 58% → 51% since the 4:00 AM MST forecast (same model, same window)
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Tailodds’ model gives the 102 departures scheduled from Phoenix noon–3 PM Saturday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 6:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
▼ 50% → 39% since the 4:00 AM MST forecast (same model, same window)
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Tailodds’ model gives the 138 departures scheduled from Phoenix 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 39% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 18%. From the 6:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 124 departures scheduled from Phoenix 3–6 PM Saturday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 5:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
▲ 45% → 58% since the 3:00 AM MST forecast (same model, same window)
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Tailodds’ model gives the 102 departures scheduled from Phoenix noon–3 PM Saturday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 4:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
▲ 37% → 50% since the 3:00 AM MST forecast (same model, same window)
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Tailodds’ model gives the 138 departures scheduled from Phoenix 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 4:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
▼ 58% → 45% since the 2:00 AM MST forecast (model changed)
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Tailodds’ model gives the 102 departures scheduled from Phoenix noon–3 PM Saturday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 3:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
▼ 49% → 37% since the 11:00 PM MST forecast (model changed)
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Tailodds’ model gives the 138 departures scheduled from Phoenix 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 37% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 3:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
▲ 43% → 58% since the 12:00 AM MST forecast (same model, same window)
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Tailodds’ model gives the 102 departures scheduled from Phoenix noon–3 PM Saturday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 2:00 AM MST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 102 departures scheduled from Phoenix noon–3 PM Saturday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 12:00 AM MST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 138 departures scheduled from Phoenix 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 11:00 PM MST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 15 arrivals that landed between 9:44 PM and 10:44 PM MST, 15 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 20% of arrivals at Phoenix arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View PHX
Tailodds’ model gives the 16 departures scheduled from Phoenix midnight–3 AM Saturday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 18%. From the 8:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
▲ 68% → 87% since the 2:00 PM MST forecast (same model, same window)
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Tailodds’ model gives the 46 departures scheduled from Phoenix 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 87% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 49%. From the 8:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 16 departures that took off between 7:25 PM and 8:25 PM MST, 16 left at least 15 minutes late. Phoenix typically sees 32% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View PHX
FAA-reported departure delays at Phoenix (PHX) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 3:00 PM MST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 1:52 PM MST.
Tailodds’ model gives the 37 departures scheduled from Phoenix 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 68% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 44%. From the 2:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
▲ 54% → 81% since the 7:00 AM MST forecast (model changed)
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Tailodds’ model gives the 95 departures scheduled from Phoenix 6–9 PM Friday an average 81% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 40%. From the 2:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 113 departures scheduled from Phoenix 3–6 PM Friday an average 87% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 41%. From the 2:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.