Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Airline analyst: Every MVP detector is airport-wide, so a carrier view would only repeat the airport feed.
Tailodds’ model gives the 35 departures scheduled from St Louis noon–3 PM Friday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 42%Horizon 7.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Of 16 arrivals that landed between 6:58 PM and 7:58 PM CST, 8 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at St Louis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 6:58 PM–7:58 PM CSTSample 16 flightsLate 50%Typical 21%
Tailodds’ model gives the 15 departures scheduled from St Louis 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 66% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 48%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 66%Horizon 4.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 30 departures scheduled from St Louis 6–9 PM Thursday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 43%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 59%Horizon 1.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from St Louis 3–6 PM Thursday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 48%Horizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Of 21 arrivals that landed between 8:46 PM and 9:46 PM CST, 9 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at St Louis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 8:46 PM–9:46 PM CSTSample 21 flightsLate 43%Typical 21%
What changed: late share 62% → 35%
Of 17 departures that took off between 7:34 PM and 8:34 PM CST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. St Louis typically sees 39% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 7:34 PM–8:34 PM CSTSample 17 flightsLate 35%Typical 39%
What changed: 53% → 67% since the 1:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 15 departures scheduled from St Louis 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 67% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 7:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 67%Horizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from St Louis 6–9 PM Monday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 46%Horizon 3.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Of 14 arrivals that landed between 9:42 PM and 10:42 PM CST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at St Louis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 9:42 PM–10:42 PM CSTSample 14 flightsLate 43%Typical 21%
What changed: late share 67% → 85%
Of 13 departures that took off between 8:21 PM and 9:21 PM CST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. St Louis typically sees 39% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 8:21 PM–9:21 PM CSTSample 13 flightsLate 85%Typical 39%
What changed: 69% → 78% since the 6:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 15 departures scheduled from St Louis 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 78% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 51%. From the 7:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 78%Horizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 67% → 42%
Of 12 arrivals that landed between 10:55 PM and 11:55 PM CST, 5 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at St Louis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 10:55 PM–11:55 PM CSTSample 12 flightsLate 42%Typical 21%
What changed: 79% → 83% since the 6:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from St Louis 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 83% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 55%. From the 7:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 83%Horizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 72% → 75% since the 4:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 57 departures scheduled from St Louis 6–9 PM Friday an average 75% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 47%. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 75%Horizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Of 12 departures that took off between 1:30 PM and 2:30 PM CST, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. St Louis typically sees 29% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 2 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 1:30 PM–2:30 PM CSTSample 12 flightsLate 58%Typical 29%
What changed: 47% → 57% since the 6:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 54 departures scheduled from St Louis 3–6 PM Friday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 37%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 57%Horizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 49 departures scheduled from St Louis noon–3 PM Friday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 7:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 44%Horizon 3.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Of 13 arrivals that landed between 7:51 PM and 8:51 PM CST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at St Louis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 7:51 PM–8:51 PM CSTSample 13 flightsLate 46%Typical 21%
Tailodds’ model gives the 27 departures scheduled from St Louis 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 64% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 49%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 64%Horizon 4.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Of 12 departures that took off between 10:45 AM and 11:45 AM CST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. St Louis typically sees 21% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 10:45 AM–11:45 AM CSTSample 12 flightsLate 50%Typical 21%
What changed: 40% → 28%; calm-weather level 26%
Tailodds’ model gives the 49 departures scheduled from St Louis noon–3 PM Thursday an average 28% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 28%Horizon 4.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Of 13 arrivals that landed between 7:17 PM and 8:17 PM CST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at St Louis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 7:17 PM–8:17 PM CSTSample 13 flightsLate 54%Typical 21%
What changed: 41% → 45%; calm-weather level 38%
Tailodds’ model gives the 44 departures scheduled from St Louis 3–6 PM Tuesday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 45%Horizon 0.5 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: 50% → 47%; calm-weather level 39%
Tailodds’ model gives the 61 departures scheduled from St Louis 6–9 PM Tuesday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 12:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 47%Horizon 5.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
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